For awhile now, people have regarded the NFL as a league defined by parity, and not necessarily in a good way. While none of the remaining teams are challenging for immortality alongside the likes of the 1972 Dolphins, '70s Steelers, '80s 49ers or '90s Cowboys, it's hard to beat these two coin-flip games that feature:
• Four coaches who've been the Super Bowl
• Four Pro Bowl quarterbacks
• This season's NFL MVP
• No fluky wins to get here
• No one-dimensional teams that either play scared on offense or couldn't stop the '76 Buccaneers on defense.
In the end, we've got two host teams who are undefeated at home this season against perhaps the best road warriors the NFL has to offer. How can you beat it?
And now for the picks...
PITTSBURGH (13-5) at DENVER (14-3), 3 p.m., CBS
If there was a song titled, "Anything You Can Do, I Can Do Juuust a Bit Better," it would be Pittsburgh's theme here. I like Big Ben over Jake the Snake, who is playing as well as Peter King promised he would for the last five years. I like the Steelers' running game a smidge over the Broncos'. I like Hines Ward over any Denver receiver. I'd take Pittsburgh's AFC-leading defense over Denver's any day, but the Broncos allowed only 29 more yards per game and were second in the NFL with a plus-20 turnover ratio. And that was before the Patriots came to town.
Obviously, Pittsburgh was more impressive last week. They took it to Indy and got no breaks, whereas the Broncos benefited hugely from a questionable pass interference call and an uncharacteristic red-zone turnover by Tom Brady that meant a 14-point swing. Credit Champ Bailey with making a beautiful snag (his eight picks were third in the AFC), but I was glad to see his hot-dogging ass laid the fuck out by Ben Watson. Uh, nice blocking on the runback, Denver. Three guys loafing, and one ends up on his back during the entire review of his own fumble.
Can't underestimate the Denver crowd here, though. The Broncos are 4-0 in home AFC title games and have won 11 straight at Invesco Field. Last I checked Indy was no pushover at home, either, so I like the Steelers, who are looking every bit of the 15-1 steamrollers they were last regular season.
And one more thing: Amazing, isn't it, that almost no one brings up Ben Roethlisberger's youth? Two years in the league and his relative inexperience is never cause for concern. Nor should it be, from what I've seen.
Steelers don't have cheerleaders | Broncos Cheerleaders
Spread: Denver by 3
Paul's Pick: Steelers 21, Broncos 20
CAROLINA (13-5) at SEATTLE (14-3), 6:30 p.m., FOX
Has a team ever gone undefeated at home, reeled off 11 straight wins, had the league's MVP, beat a 13-1 team in Week 16, played in front of the loudest crowd in football and been only a 3½-point favorite against a non-division-winner whose top two running backs are out and whose best defender (Julius Peppers) has been kept out of practice?
I know, I know. Among those 11 consecutive victims were the Texans, Cardinals, Rams, 49ers, Eagles, 49ers (again!) and Titans. And the Colts took Week 16 off. And Shaun Alexander is softer than watching "When Harry Met Sally" while eating "just a salad." And Seattle seems kinda, um, mistake-y.
But they win. Whether it's Jay Feely missing three of his only four misses from 40-plus yards this year or playing the Eagles and Colts with Mike McMahon and Jim Sorgi under center, they've gotten it done.
What I don't love about the Panthers, besides not having a healthy Peppers, who's simply destructive, is that getting Steve Smith involved requires several levels of execution. He has to 1) get open; 2) get a good pass; and 3) make the catch. OK, that hasn't been a problem yet, but handing the ball to Alexander and having him run behind Walter Jones sounds simpler.
Panthers Cheerleaders | Seahawks Cheerleaders
Spread: Seattle by 3½
Paul's Pick: Seahawks 24, Panthers 17
LAST WEEK'S RECORD: 2-2
2005-06 PLAYOFFS RECORD: 3-5
I like the Steeler pick. As a Pittsburgh fan, though, this one worries me more than either of the two previous games. I had a feeling Indy would choke from underrating the Steelers and from Manning's playoff woes, but Denver, like the Steelers, has something to prove. Plus they have even more to prove because people have been picking the Steelers to win this one all week, and Pittsburgh's the sentimental favorite for most of the country. I think the Broncos will come out and play mean and take the lead in the first half, but Pittsburgh will pull it together in quarters 3 and 4 and come back to win by the skin of their teeth.
As for the NFC, I didn't watch it enough during these playoffs, but I for one am rooting for the Seahawks.
Posted by stackpat at January 20, 2006 9:46 AM