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Friday, January 13, 2006

NFL Playoff Preview and Picks: Divisional Round
The most wonderful time of the year? This week, of course.

The opening weekend of March Madness is generally considered the best weekend in sports, but I don't rate it higher than this round of the NFL playoffs that annually features four conference-championship-caliber matchups.

While I enjoy snoozing through a Duke drubbing of Delaware State as much as the next guy, there's clearly way more at stake here, since the winners will be within sniffing distance of the America's most-watched event. Second-round hoops upsets — besides teaching us where the hell Valparaiso is — do little but delay the inevitable for speed bumps and sometimes fuck up anticipated matchups we wanted to see more than North Carolina vs. Tennessee-Chattanooga.

The reasons why this weekened is even better than next in the NFL playoffs?

1. Twice the football. Duh.

2. Aside from a potential super-showdown between the Pats and Colts, none of the possible combinations of conference-championship games are any sexier than the four games we have now. (In the NFC, that's really saying something.)

3. There's still football to look forward to. When the games finish next week, we'll have nothing left but one game ... a game we have to wait two weeks to see, a game that may feature Jake Plummer vs. Rex Grossman, a game people will block your view of, a game where you're supposed to be present and silent during the commercials, a game with an extended halftime, a game that will have a blimp hovering over Detroit and sending back aerial shots of the "good parts," a game in which every asshat in the room will share with you his absurd scoring combinations to win the box pool ("All's I need is a field goal, a safety, a touchdown and a two-point conversation!").

Enjoy it while you can. And now for the picks...

Saturday's Games:

WASHINGTON (11-6) at SEATTLE (13-3), 4:30 p.m., FOX
I'm still trying to convince myself that laying nine points against a defense as active and disruptive as the Redskins' is a good idea. That going against Joe Gibbs — 5-0 in his career against the Seahawks — is a good idea. That going with Mike Holmgren — 0-4 in his career against the Redskins — is a good idea. That laying more than a touchdown with a team that hasn't won a playoff game since Ronald Reagan's first term is a good idea.

And then I look at these stats from Mark Brunell last week against the Bucs — 7 of 15, 41 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT — and I feel a whole lot better.

I just hope Gibbs gameplans smarter than he speaks on Shaun Alexander, about whom he said: "He can hurt you by catching the ball out of the backfield." Yeah, with 15 catches for 78 yards on the season, he's a regular Marshall Faulk.

Redskins Cheerleaders | Seahawks Cheerleaders
Spread: Seattle by 9
Paul's Pick: Seahawks 24, Redskins 14

NEW ENGLAND (11-6) at DENVER (13-3), 8:15 p.m., CBS
This game reminds me a lot of last week's Pittsburgh-Cincy affair. Everyone was on the Steelers last week, and everyone seems to be on the Pats here. Maybe just media, though, because the line hasn't moved, giving you a solid field goal with the champs.

This is Denver's first home playoff game since 1999, which I was surprised to learn. Hell, even the Jets hosted a postseason game since ... and ended up blasting Peyton Manning and Colts.

Do you want Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and three points, or do you want Mike Shanahan, Jake Plummer and the home crowd? I favor gameplan and execution over any homefield advantage — and nobody gameplans like Belichick, and nobody executes like Brady. In other words, the home crowd can suck it.

Patriots Cheerleaders | Broncos Cheerleaders
Spread: Denver by 3
Paul's Pick: Patriots 27, Broncos 20

Sunday's Games:

PITTSBURGH (12-5) at INDIANAPOLIS (14-2), 1 p.m., CBS
You know why the Colts are the best team in football? Because not only are they coached by a guy who's led Tampa Bay and Indy to seven straight playoff berths — the third-longest streak in NFL history — but because they have studs.

You hear that, Jerry Porter? Studs.

Manning. Edge. Harrison. Freeney. All of 'em first-round picks. All of 'em may one day end up in Canton.

Pro Bowlers at QB, RB, WR, on the O-line, the D-line, at LB and in the secondary. These boys can play.

But I love Porter calling the Colts soft and accusing them of getting by on gimmicks. The irony is that he's admitting the Steelers couldn't beat a soft, gimmicky team a few weeks ago. Got punked, actually, 26-7 in prime time.

Crazy-whack Manning stat of the day: In the past three regular seasons, Manning has thrown for 106 TDs and 30 INTs. In 2005, Brett Favre threw for 20 TDs and 29 INTs.

Steelers don't have cheerleaders | Colts Cheerleaders
Spread: Indianapolis by 9½
Paul's Pick: Colts 38, Steelers 17

CAROLINA (12-5) at CHICAGO (12-4), 4:30 p.m., FOX
Don't look now, but we may have a little Belichick-Brady action going on with the Panthers. John Fox and Jake Delhomme are 4-1 in the playoffs together — their only loss coming to the Pats in Super Bowl XXXVIII — and last week's methodical demolition of the Giants doesn't just happen by accident. That was a masterful performance.

In five career postseason starts, Delhomme now fashions a passer rating of 105.1, with 1,127 passing yards, seven TDs and only one pick. Forgive me if I favor him over Rex Grossman, who's thrown for all of four touchdowns in his three-year career.

Like the Bears' defense, huh? I'll go with the team that ranked third in the league in yards allowed and pitched a shutout just last week against a team that had been averaging about 30 points per game at Giants Stadium.

Panthers Cheerleaders | Bears don't have cheerleaders
Spread: Chicago by 3
Paul's Pick: Panthers 20, Bears 14

LAST WEEK'S RECORD: 1-3
2005-06 PLAYOFFS RECORD: 1-3

Category: Sports | Permalink | Post a Comment (7)


Comments: NFL Playoff Preview and Picks: Divisional Round

your drunk Paul...or smokin that wacky sh*t... GO BRONCOS...home field is brutal,especially in Denver

Posted by Grant at January 13, 2006 6:25 AM

I'll take Belichick and Brady (and company) over home field. Home field didn't do anything for Pgh last year. I doubt if the fans in Denver will have any more impact.

Jake's not a rookie, but he isn't Brady either.

I've learned my lesson. Never bet against New England Bill. He is the best big game coach of this generation and one of the best ever. I'm not a fan of his or their team, but 10 consecutive playoff wins is saying something.

Posted by art at January 13, 2006 7:53 AM

Dude, Joey Porter. And yes, him running his mouth wasn't too bright. I do think the Steelers have a shot, but it's a minute one. They're going to have to disrupt Manning's passing game, which is one of the toughest things to do in the NFL. On the other hand, the Colts have choked in the playoffs the past few years, so you never know. I still have hope.

You're right about the Patriots. I never pick against them come playoff time. I think they destroy Denver.

Otherwise I think your NFC picks are spot-on. The Bears play in the NFL's worst division and inflated their record thusly. I also think Grossman will be the subject of major pwnage.

Posted by stackpat at January 13, 2006 10:11 AM

Earlier in the season the Bears beat the Panthers by 10 with the lowest-rated QB in the league Kyle Orton in charge. They sacked Delhomme eight times and allowed only a field goal. At the time, Carolina was coming off of four straight games of 30+ points.

And the Giants had no linebackers when DeShauna Foster ran all over them. The Bears have two of the four AP All-Pro LBs. Grossman is green and I am biased, but I'll take the healthy home team. Bearssss!

Posted by cubbiephil at January 13, 2006 1:03 PM

Da Bears. They creamed Delhomme earlier this season- it was awesome. They continue to win against all expectations and naysayers...

Posted by lucy at January 14, 2006 3:45 PM

paul- who dey....who dey.....who dey say gonna beat the Broncos!!!
still pumped up!
hay fellow readers of paul's rag i know high roller eh?> just i`m a huge fan of his... and want to turn this into a poster and t-shirt for myself. Thank you to anyone that can help

Posted by Grant at January 15, 2006 5:48 AM

wow! my post was butcherd...guess i`ll have to e-mail paul personally. i want a John Lynch picture doin the double bicep at the end of the game saturday. help me if you can

Posted by Grant at January 15, 2006 5:53 AM
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