After a couple of 1-2 weeks, this series is off to a worse start than The Magic Hour and The Chevy Chase Show combined.
But just as Chevy Chase returned to prominence with such blockbusters as Bad Meat, The Karate Dog and Goose!, I plan to resurrect my standing as well.
Here are the bets I think are strongest among the Week 3 lines.
(Home teams in CAPS)
Panthers (-3) over DOLPHINS
Two weeks ago, one of these teams was a leading candidate to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, while the other was expected to challenge the record for most fans put to sleep by the middle of the fourth quarter.
Has Carolina's last-second loss to the Saints, followed by a victory over the champion Patriots dropped them that far? Has Miami's shocking win over the always unpredictable Broncos, followed by a loss at the Jets, in which they scored once, bumped them that high?
The difference between these teams is greater than three points, no matter where they play.
PACKERS (+3½) over Buccaneers
I'll see strip clubs offering $1 lap dances before I see the Brett Favre-led Packers fall to 0-3 at home against a team that went 5-11 last season.
What's that? There are $1 lap dances being offered in New Orleans?
Uh-oh.
Cardinals (+6½) over SEAHAWKS
If the Cardinals hadn't bumbled the clock in a way that would've made Herm Edwards blush, we could've been looking at one of the greatest moments in gambling history. Down by five and favored by one point, a touchdown would have given Arizona a last-minute one-point lead. Instead of taking the sure extra point and given their bettors a likely victory, the Cards would've gone for two and protected against a game-tying field goal. That conversion opportunity would have been some scene at the Vegas sportsbooks.
What does that have to do with this game? Nothing. I just have no actual facts to back up my pick. Rather I think the Cards aren't a bad club and can see them picking up their first victory of the season against your typical modern NFL team, one whose actions are harder to predict than Courtney Love after an eight-ball.
Last Week: 1-2
Season: 2-4
Please post your own best bets in the comments section.
The next PK.com update will be no sooner than Tuesday, when I'll probably have a review and photos of my weekend in Myrtle Beach, S.C.
After a strong 2-1 performance last week, I'm also up to a whopping 2-4 record on my locks of the week.
So grab your bankroll and bet along with me...
Theory: Good teams will start to beat up on bad ones. It won't even be close. Especially when those bad teams are on the road.
Lock #1: Indianapolis -13 1/2 vs. Cleveland
Yes, I know it's a 13 1/2 point lead. But really, you don't think the Colts can beat the lowly Browns in the dome? Peyton Manning vs. Trent Dilfer. Edgerin James vs. Ruben Droughns. Marvin Harrison vs. Dennis Northcutt. You decide.
Lock #2: Philadelphia -8 vs. Oakland
The Raiders are doing the dreaded cross-coast trip to face their third top tier team in a row. This vaunted offense racked up just 37 points their first two games and the Eagles are likely the best defense they've faced so far. Finally, the Eagles just gave the NFL a taste of what they can do on offense last week.
Lock #3: Seattle -6 1/2 vs. Arizona
Posted by CJ at September 23, 2005 1:12 AMIt's official, nothing can help the Cardinals. They were one of the most popular preseason sleeper picks. The problem is they still haven't woken up. Seattle is a better team. Maybe not by much more than a TD, but at least a TD.