Coming off my 10-1 record against the spread last NFL postseason, I'm looking forward to selecting three betting locks each week and tracking them as the season rolls on.
Feel free to add your own best bets in the Comments section.
Keep in mind that I'm not a betting professional and not even much of an amateur. I guarantee no more of a chance to win than a guy with a two-sided coin. But we'll give it a go.
My trend for Week 1: take the points. Except for the Patriots, Colts and Eagles, there hasn't been a lot of consistency across the league in recent years. So why not take points early in the season, when people don't know what the hell to expect? Or are you gonna tell me you expected the Steelers and Chargers to combine for a 27-5 record in 2004?
(Home teams in CAPS)
Raiders (+7½) over PATRIOTS
I'm as interested as any to see how the Patriots respond to an upheaval in their coaching staff and defensive lineup. And I'd rather do it with a better-than-a-touchdown lead. That's no knock on the Pats; I think they'll be fine. But I like getting big points with good teams, and I don't think there's a 7½-point difference between these squads, especially considering spreads don't normally rise above 10, and that's with established great teams against established poor teams. In Week 1, nothing is established yet.
Just wondering: Does Kerry Collins really "throw a great deep ball" or is that something one sportswriter said and now everyone is adopting that as truth a truth that, by law, must be included in every NFL preview?
Saints (+6½) over PANTHERS
I'm sure we're in agreement about the two scenarios for the Saints' fortunes this season: They'll either be so overcome by the tragedy at home that they'll be unable to focus, or they'll be so determined to make the Bayou backers proud that they'll fight all 60 minutes of every game. As with the above selection, I like taking 6½ points to find out. The Saints could be playing the 1985 Bears and I could see their first game coming down to a field goal.
Jets (+3½) over CHIEFS
The Chiefs started 2-4 at home in 2004 after going 8-0 the previous season. Arrowhead is still a tough place to play, but I think the Jets are the more complete team here, so I'd only take Kansas City if I felt the home field was worth more than the 3½-point spread. I don't, and it was the Jets, not the Chiefs, who were one missed field goal away from a spot in last year's AFC Championship game.
Hi Paul its Kathie the girl who took your picture at the Yankee Stadium tour back in July. I read your site quite often. What's your take on the Giants season? I feel good about it. The defense is healthy. The offense now has a boost from Burress, not to mention a beast of a RB for short yards with Bradon Jacobs. Tiki is in top shape. Is hoping for a 10-6 season wishful thinking? Will Eli bring a spark that Blue needs? Will Shockey hold on to the ball? Also, I don't see NE going to the promised land this year.
Posted by Kathie at September 8, 2005 9:14 AM