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Thursday, September 8, 2005

Bank Shots: My Locks for NFL Week 1
Coming off my 10-1 record against the spread last NFL postseason, I'm looking forward to selecting three betting locks each week and tracking them as the season rolls on.

Feel free to add your own best bets in the Comments section.

Keep in mind that I'm not a betting professional — and not even much of an amateur. I guarantee no more of a chance to win than a guy with a two-sided coin. But we'll give it a go.

My trend for Week 1: take the points. Except for the Patriots, Colts and Eagles, there hasn't been a lot of consistency across the league in recent years. So why not take points early in the season, when people don't know what the hell to expect? Or are you gonna tell me you expected the Steelers and Chargers to combine for a 27-5 record in 2004?

(Home teams in CAPS)

Raiders (+7½) over PATRIOTS
I'm as interested as any to see how the Patriots respond to an upheaval in their coaching staff and defensive lineup. And I'd rather do it with a better-than-a-touchdown lead. That's no knock on the Pats; I think they'll be fine. But I like getting big points with good teams, and I don't think there's a 7½-point difference between these squads, especially considering spreads don't normally rise above 10, and that's with established great teams against established poor teams. In Week 1, nothing is established yet.

Just wondering: Does Kerry Collins really "throw a great deep ball" or is that something one sportswriter said and now everyone is adopting that as truth — a truth that, by law, must be included in every NFL preview?

Saints (+6½) over PANTHERS
I'm sure we're in agreement about the two scenarios for the Saints' fortunes this season: They'll either be so overcome by the tragedy at home that they'll be unable to focus, or they'll be so determined to make the Bayou backers proud that they'll fight all 60 minutes of every game. As with the above selection, I like taking 6½ points to find out. The Saints could be playing the 1985 Bears and I could see their first game coming down to a field goal.

Jets (+3½) over CHIEFS
The Chiefs started 2-4 at home in 2004 after going 8-0 the previous season. Arrowhead is still a tough place to play, but I think the Jets are the more complete team here, so I'd only take Kansas City if I felt the home field was worth more than the 3½-point spread. I don't, and it was the Jets, not the Chiefs, who were one missed field goal away from a spot in last year's AFC Championship game.

Category: Sports | Permalink | Post a Comment (15)


Comments: Bank Shots: My Locks for NFL Week 1

Hi Paul its Kathie the girl who took your picture at the Yankee Stadium tour back in July. I read your site quite often. What's your take on the Giants season? I feel good about it. The defense is healthy. The offense now has a boost from Burress, not to mention a beast of a RB for short yards with Bradon Jacobs. Tiki is in top shape. Is hoping for a 10-6 season wishful thinking? Will Eli bring a spark that Blue needs? Will Shockey hold on to the ball? Also, I don't see NE going to the promised land this year.

Posted by Kathie at September 8, 2005 9:14 AM

Denver -4 over Miami

Posted by mathew79 at September 8, 2005 10:23 AM

Well, Kathie, I think the Giants schedule looks pretty brutal. Maybe all NFL skeds look that way since there are only a few roll-overs, like Cleveland, San Fran and Miami.

Dr. Z expects a 5-11 season based on that schedule, and I expect them to do better. The over-under in Vegas for Giants wins is 7. Last year it was 6. So an uptick is expected, but obviously not a huge leap.

Sure, they get a boost from Burress, but I don't remember the Steelers crying about losing him.

It's the NFL, so have faith. You didn't expect a Super Bowl appearance in Kerry Collins' first year, did ya? All teams have good reason to get juiced for Week 1.

Posted by Paul Katcher at September 8, 2005 2:34 PM

I absolutely agree on the Denver lock. Four points to the Dolphins should be no problem at all.

And I'm not so sure about the Jets. They're on the road. No one is sure their QB is back healthy. And the KC defense seems to have upgraded itself (and with their offense, they don't have to upgrade much!).

Oh, and the Eagles are always a lock ;-) (-2.5 vs. Atlanta)

For the record, my three picks are:
Denver -4 vs. Miami
Tennessee +7 vs. Pittsburgh
San Diego -4.5 vs. Dallas

Posted by CJ at September 8, 2005 7:47 PM

Nice "bank shot" on the Raiders v Pats game. You really locked that one in.

Posted by Jayhaux at September 9, 2005 10:09 AM

Thanks for your first comment since May 25. Really adds a lot to the discussion.

Care to make picks for the weekend?

Posted by Paul Katcher at September 9, 2005 12:25 PM

Yeah, Jayhaux has a good point, Paul. I think this means you should give up prognosticating for the rest of your blogging career. Hell, this is probably as good a time as any to give up blogging altogether. I mean, god forbid you miss the very first pick on the very first game of the NFL season... and a little Oakland incompetancy got in your way.

On the other hand, it's just as likely that Jayhaux is a jackass.

Posted by CJ at September 9, 2005 2:53 PM

Bill Simmons is in with his picks, including a funny bit about the Eagles Monday night. Mute button, please!

Posted by Paul Katcher at September 9, 2005 3:06 PM

I could be a jackass. But I was just trying to point out that Paul, even though he is a good writer, seemed a little too cocky with his picks. Though yes it is the first game of the season. But apparently it was a "lock" or sure bet.

My picks are:

Pittsburgh (-7.5)
Denver (+4.5)
Car. (-6.5)
Seattle (+3.5)
Min. (- 6.5)
Chicago(+6.5)
Houston (+4.5)

Its a comment section. I felt free to comment.

Posted by Jayhaux at September 9, 2005 6:06 PM

Yeah, Jayhaux, never meant to imply you couldn't comment, that's what comments are for... including my comment that you're a jackass ;-)

And yeah, Paul, I'm guessing Bill is dead-on with his prediction for MNF chatter. But it is my squad, so I'll be there!!!! And I'm having a tough time reading Bill anymore... I don't think it's humanly possible for him to be on the BoSox and Pats jocks any more than he is now!

Posted by CJ at September 9, 2005 7:07 PM

your a prophet, that saints pick was/is nuts...

Posted by John L. Williams 32 at September 11, 2005 6:03 PM

I officially put a "Kick Me" sign on myself for only getting one of my picks right.

I am a jackass.

Posted by Jayhaux at September 12, 2005 4:22 PM

Maybe if I had picked 7 games I'd have gotten one right. I missed my three "locks." Ugh! lol

Posted by CJ at September 12, 2005 6:58 PM

Well, I was 0-1 but if you want to make some cash fade Jayhaux picks! Hey, that should be a great section for the site, Jayhaux's weekly fade picks!

Posted by mathew79 at September 13, 2005 9:01 AM

Those teams had the tools to win. Daunte had a fluke game.

Second, everybody does the opposite of what I do anyway. Its nothing new.

Posted by Jayhaux at September 13, 2005 2:51 PM
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