Yes, it makes it difficult to type, but people have managed to work a keyboard under much more physically challenging situations (speaking of sorority-gal webcam shows, of course) I'm on the clear and the cream, bitches.

Last week, I played the "gun-to-my-head" theory. I could have seen the Rams playing well on turf. I could have seen the Colts breaking their Boston curse. I could have seen the Vikes at least making a game in Philly. But would they do it 6 times out of 11? With a gun to my head and the threat of losing my life or, worse, my Don Mattingly autographed 1984 Topps rookie card, I have to go with what's probable, not what's unsurprising. Not looking to be a hero, just get my picks right.

With that in mind, here's what I think is likely to happen more times than not this weekend.

ATLANTA (12-5) at PHILADELPHIA (14-3), 3 p.m., FOX
Last week, everyone talked themselves into taking the Colts. From Monday-Saturday, it was like a downhill train of public punditry. (Though Vegas bettors always sided with New England, and so did I.) Now people are talking themselves into thinking a dome team has the advantage in what is expected to be snowy weather, because the passing game is more the Eagles' strong suit than the Falcons'. I'm not sold.

Let me throw one stat at you: the Eagles have played 15 games that counted, and they won 14 of them. Here's another: In 13 of those 15 games, they won by at least five points. I know they did a lot of that with Terrell Owens, but I just don't see a wide receiver being as irreplaceable as a quarterback or effective unit of linemen or linebackers.

Here's one reason why the Falcons should scare people. If the weather is nasty and field goals are impossible to convert, then it's obviously a game of touchdowns, and I think the Falcons might have the edge in the big-play arena. A defender slips here or there, and I can see Michael Vick or Warrick Dunn taking it 70 yards to the house.

Other than that, I take the home field, the outdoor environment and the team that has flat-out dominated opponents all season long.

Did You Know? Donovan McNabb is the fourth quarterback to lead his team to at least four consecutive conference championship games. The other three, Ken Stabler (5), Jim Kelly and Troy Aikman, all won at least one of those games ... With last week's victory, Eagles coach Andy Reid joined John Madden and Mike Holmgren as the only coaches with at least one win in five straight postseasons.
Spread: Eagles by 4½ (but varying from -3½ to -6)
Paul's Pick: Eagles 21, Falcons 14

NEW ENGLAND (15-2) at PITTSBURGH (16-1), 6:30 p.m., CBS
Pittsburgh has won 16 games and the Patriots have won 15. Which surprised you more? In my eyes, that's how you should pick.

There are a few reasons why I don't think the favored Pats are a lock: they won't have some crazy homefield advantage over a dome team, they won't be in anyone's heads, and if ever there was a time to feel overconfident, this is it. But ... they're the Patriots.

The '91-98 Bulls were the Bulls. The '96-'00 Yankees were the Yankees. The '81-'89 49ers were the 49ers. They stumbled, at times, but you didn't expect it.

That being said, I'm not one of those guys who did a full 180 on Pittsburgh after it kinda blew chunks last week. The Steelers gave up only three points to the Jets offense, and everyone's allowed a bad game. Just a few weeks ago, New England lost at Miami when it still had a lot to play for, namely the home field in this game right here. (Which, it turns out, they wouldn't have gotten anyway.)

Steelers fans, they're gonna need you. Conventional wisdom says you're worth three points (meaning this is a six-point game on a neutral field). Can you be worth more? I'd like to see it, personally, but I wouldn't expect it six times out of 11.

Did You Know? In terms of combined wins, this is the best AFC championship game ever. With 31 wins, it tops Jacksonville (15) vs. Tennessee (15) in 1999 ... Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are 7-0 together in the postseason. The only other undefeated coach-QB combo with at least five games played is Jimmy Johnson and Troy Aikman, who went 6-0 ... If the Steelers win, they will become the 10th team to go 10-0 at home during a season. Seven of the previous nine teams won the Super Bowl.
Spread: Patriots by 3 (some offering -2½)
Paul's Pick: Patriots 21, Steelers 17

Other Sports Ruminations:

• Local boy Chris Mullin's name came up recently, and I was floored when I saw that he had five straight years of a .509+ shooting percentage and a 25.1+ scoring average. That's some sick stuff, man.

• When do we start the Oslen Twins-like countdown to 18 for Michelle Wie? In Revenge of the Nerds, Booger was trolling the junior high schools all day for a date, but came up empty. Should have hit the links instead.

• J.J. Redick has taken 334 free throws in his career at Duke and hit all but 19 of them. In a two-game stretch last week, Shaquille O'Neal missed 25 of 48.

• Worst part of Pats not having a home game this weekend: $35 per-car parking. That's absolutely fucking insane.

• OK, how many people two years ago thought LeBron James would turn into the model young pro athlete? (Of course, we may have said that about Kobe at one time, too.) Check out this awesome wallpaper of LeBron and Sebastian Telfair during their high school days.

Today's Sports Links:

• SI.com Gets a Facelift — Looks pretty good. I would've included a note from the editor on what's new and why we're throwing a new interface at regular readers. But what do I know? I've only been producing web content for 8½ years.

• eBay Auction: Doug Brien's Head on a Silver Platter — Fifteen grand is a pretty steep price, even for those rich Jets fans with fireman hats on. I imagine the winning bidder also gets Paul Hackett's nuts in a jar.

• Red Sox Nomination for Fan of the Year — Presenting the poster child for Red Sox Nation. Or, as I like to call it, Who left the door to the psycho ward unlocked? I wonder if his ankle bracelet was autographed by Nomar before he left town in a huff. Or Pedro. Or Roger. Or Mo. Or ...

• Top 10 College QBs of the ESPN Era — Such a subjective ranking, since a lot of these guys proved, by not being NFL stars, that their teams had a lot to do with their success. I love Tommie Frazier (No. 1), and think he often gets overlooked as a dominating player, but let's face it, whatever Frazier did well, Michael Vick (No. 1) did better. What, Vick on those Cornhuskers teams couldn't have rolled? Brook Berringer did. Chris Weinke (No. 2) over Matt Leinhart (No. 8)? There's some seriously good crack being smoked in Bristol.

• Brooklyn Brawler's Profile — I love the old wrestling links, especially one of this guy who was maybe the most laughed-at heel in WWF history. Not liking the hole-y hell Yanks shirt, but check out the wedding ring. That's the most classic part. Where's Mrs. Brawler?

• Hilarious Pics of Vince McMahon vs. Hulk Hogan — Look how jacked this guy is. I'd love to see Bud Selig in a similar position, in a wife-beater during the home-run derby.

• ESPN.com SportsNation's World Series Tourney — This feature has about as much timely relevance as putting Molly Ringwald on the cover of TIME again, but they're asking fans to vote the last 16 World Series winners through a tournament bracket. Now, considering network panelists ranked the 1998 Yankees as the best team in any sport of the ESPN era, they might as well shut down the site if the Bombers don't get the nod. Especially since the only team to win a World Series since that special aired finished in second place in its division this year.

• Amazon.com List: Gifts for the Gay New York Mets Fan — Also known as "Things to Get Mike Piazza for His Wedding." Among the list items: Hardball: An Erotic Novel, Ace Athletic Supporter and How to Give a Good B.J. in a Men's Room Stall. (OK, I made the last one up, though I do know some chicks who could write the Foreward.)

• Most Popular Pages on Baseball-Reference.com — An interesting popularity index on the best baseball reference site out there. Seven of the top-10 most-requested teams are Yankees. Our other 19 World Series-winning teams are in there somewhere, too. I love how the Carlos Beltran page is sponsored, till the end of 2005, by a Houston site that claims to be "all Astros all the time." Yeah, except when they're sponsoring pages of Mets players.

• Win a Chance to Play Snoop Dogg in Madden 2005 — Knowing how these online games work, Snoop will hand over his controller to some 15-year-old virgin who's cracked every glitch in the game, manages to blitz 10 and cover every receiver, jiggles the wires on field-goal attempts, plays Randy Moss at fullback and runs out patterns against a linebacker and then messages you this: "U Suk Ballz. Hahahahahahahahhaha."

• Sports Writing and Editing Blog — A new blog on the sportswriting craft, something I guess I know enough about to be included in their (so far) somewhat discriminatory list of sports links. Maybe the guy's made some coin on my NFL picks. (BTW, I'm 7-1 so far.)

• Kurkjian: Jeter Is MLB's Best Baserunner — Another of the guy's abilities not wholly measured by stats.

• Backman: 'I Earned That Job' — Wally Backman speaks for the first time after being painted as a low-life thug (i.e. member of the 1986 Mets), thus costing him the Diamondbacks' managerial gig. What I never understood is, What's the lingering penance that he's supposed to pay? Is being restricted from managing millionaires something that's going to rehabilitate whatever it is people hold against him? (Thanks, Chris, for the link)