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Friday, January 7, 2005

2004 NFL Playoff Preview and Picks: Wild-Card Round
Let me start by saying that I don't know — or pretend to know — what's going to happen this weekend. People who do pretend to know, however, blow my mind. It's the highest form of irony, a person who brags about sports knowledge, yet doesn't understand rule No. 1, which is that anything can happen. And if you've seen your share of sports, well, you know.

So, I'd like to give a shout-out to the guy from Oklahoma I met a couple of weeks ago who not only opined that OU would crush USC but managed to name-drop that he was friends with Bob Stoops in the process. Now, I don't hate on the Sooners, but I did remind him that USC has been recruiting NFL talent for some time and that any major-conference team that had won 21 straight games deserved more respect that he was giving them. So, anyway, here's to you, Sorry Sooner. And here's what I think might happen this weekend:

Saturday's Games:

ST. LOUIS (8-8) at SEATTLE (9-7), 4:30 p.m., ABC
I haven't seen the Seahawks play since they got dusted, 37-14, by the Jets in Week 15. I hear they staved off a Falcons comeback, led by QB Matt Schaub, not Michael Vick, in securing a home playoffs game. I did see the Rams these past two weeks, against the admittedly packing-it-in Eagles and the still-hungry Jets. And the Rams looked great. Yeah, I know the Jets took 'em to overtime, but that was thanks to a couple of fluke scores, a kickoff return and a tipped interception returned for a TD. The passing game looked sharp, the two-headed running game of Marshall Faulk and Stephen Jackson looked solid... I don't like that Shaun Alexander was more concerned about his yardage total than Seattle wrapping up a home game. I don't like that the last time Seattle won a game by more than four points was against the Dolphins on November 21... The Rams beat the 'Hawks twice this season. In the previous 15 playoff meetings in which one team had beaten the other twice in the regular season, the sweeping team has won the third contest 10 times.
Scout's Take | Rams Cheerleaders | Seahawks Cheerleaders
Spread: Seattle by 4
Paul's Pick: Rams 24, Seahawks 23

N.Y. JETS (10-6) at SAN DIEGO (12-4), 8 p.m., ABC
Does anyone know what to make of the Chargers? Has anyone even seen the Chargers? They didn't play one nationally televised game on either Sunday or Monday night (and I thought every team had to get at least one game on either night). Last year, with Drew Brees at QB, LaDainian Tomlinson at RB and Marty Schottenheimer as coach, they won four games. This year, with the same three most important people affiliated with the team, they won 12. I don't know what to tell you... The Jets always seemed to me a team with a ceiling, and that ceiling did not rise to the level of true Super Bowl contender. I know this about the Jets, they don't quit. But they don't seem to execute against the NFL's best. Are the Chargers one of them? Beats me... With 1,697 rushing yards this season, Curtis Martin owns the title of being the oldest rushing champ. But he's still 31. If he were on the Yankees, he'd be a baby.
Scout's Take | Chargers Cheerleaders | (Jets don't have cheerleaders)
Spread: Chargers by 7
Paul's Pick: Chargers 24, Jets 20

Sunday's Games:

DENVER (10-6) at INDIANAPOLIS (13-3), 1 p.m., CBS
Forget last week. That was the Broncos at home against Jim Sorgi. This is the Colts at home with Peyton Manning, and he destroyed Denver last year in the same situation. You're either on the Manning bandwagon (his lowest QB rating in any game this season was 94.1) or you're not, and I am. Here's why: Peyton got sacked only 13 times this year. You think any offensive line is that good? No way. It's just another testament to how he's playing out of this world. He's getting rid of the ball, and to the tune of 49 TDs and only 10 INTs. Sick... It's no secret that the Broncos plan to run the ball and keep it away from the Colts' offense but Indy is the team with the 1,500-yard rusher in Edgerrin James.
Scout's Take | Broncos Cheerleaders | Colts Cheerleaders
Spread: Indianapolis by 10
Paul's Pick: Colts 34, Broncos 21

MINNESOTA (8-8) at GREEN BAY (10-6), 4:30 p.m., FOX
There are four reasons why I think the Vikings can hang: two 34-31 scores in the regular season (both won by the Pack), Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss and the fact that everyone has written them off. Who knows what was really going through Moss' head when he departed the team before last week's loss at Washington was officially over, but I buy his explanation, that he was just sickened, couldn't watch anymore and didn't want to do anything stupid. I don't know if that excuses him or not, but I don't think that he just doesn't care. Jason Whitlock thinks he's a punk.) ... Interesting, huh, that these teams meet for the first time in the postseason after 87 regular-season matchups? The Packers have won the last three, and the Vikes are only 2-4 against Green Bay in the Mike Tice era... I know about Brett Favre and all he can do, but damn if I wouldn't give serious thought to instead taking Culpepper under center. You know the way professional sports is leaning these days and big ol' Daunte is 6-4, 264 pounds and threw for 4,717 yards, 39 TDs and only 11 INTS. Oh, and he rushed for 406 yards, too.... I see a team playing real loose. Ya know how Minny has felt some playoff pressure before? I'm not sure they have any this year, and they're playing a familiar opponent. I don't see them getting lost mentally.
Scout's Take | Vikings Cheerleaders | (The Packers don't have cheerleaders)
Spread: Green Bay by 6
Paul's Pick: Packers 28, Vikings 24

Other Sports Links:

Bill Simmons' Weekend Picks — He likes the Rams, Chargers, Packers and Colts. Oh, and he manages to ramble on about a current Real World series. The man's older than I am and he's watching MTV.

Dr. Z's Weekend Forecast (Sub. Required) — Paul Zimmerman picks the same winners I do, and I looked only after making my own.

SI.com Expert's Picks — Five guys pick all the way through the playoffs, all going with AFC teams to win in Jacksonville. Three have the Eagles losing the Super Bowl; two have the Falcons.

ESPN.com's Very Preseason College Football Top 25 — The booster checks haven't even cleared yet, but hey, why not? So I thought it was amazing that Florida State was only 17, then I looked for Nebraska, which is nowhere. Then I looked for Nebraska in the "Another Dozen To Watch," and they're not even in there. What the hell happened to the two teams that absolutely dominated college football in the '90s? Come in, Tequila Dave.

Jimmy Kimmel on Why Steve Garvey Should Be in the Hall of Fame — A couple of good lines in there about OPS and the kicker about spray paint, but damn this ESPN.com Page 2 piece reads more like a crappy blog post than a passionate column from a professional comedian. Not even one Tommy Lasorda joke? Nothing about Garvey's hairy arms? What about having a favorite player before fantasy baseball took off? Damn, Page 2, gimme some space for Don Mattingly!

Ohalete: Portis Reneged on Number-Swapping Deal — I always love when athletes switching teams buy the right to wear a certain number. And it's always a star buying from some scrub. Like, don't you just get them really drunk and promise to hook 'em up with some unwanted groupies?

Final QB Rankings — I have no idea how these stats were complied — it's like QB rating meets win shares — but let's congratulate Eli Manning on having a rookie season most statistically similar to Todd Marinovich. That future's looking bright, man, though it's hard to see through the haze of smoke.

USC Donors Give $2 Million to Fund a Friggin' Mascot — A couple of rich folks (I hope they're rich) donated a shitload of money to get some fucking horse to and from Trojans games. What the hell is wrong with fans of athletics at major, private universities? At least you don't see people like me giving George Steinbrenner $2 million to sign 1/12 of a third baseman. I swear college fans are the most brainwashed of the lot. Hockey fans are the most passionate. Baseball fans the most nostalgic, especially Royals and Pirates fans, because that's pretty much all ya got.

Category: Sports | Permalink | Post a Comment (11)


Comments: 2004 NFL Playoff Preview and Picks: Wild-Card Round

Paul --

The Pack went 10-6 this season. (I will not make a prediction concerning the game, however. Bad karma...)

***

(From Paul: Thanks for the correction. Went on memory for all those records.)

Posted by Robby P. at January 7, 2005 12:25 PM

Hmmmm... Rams or Seahawks?

I think the other teams are pretty clear choices, but I don't know how to read this game.

The Rams beat the Eagles JV squad 20-7. In the only series Eagles starters (minus TO and Westbrook) were on the field, they marched down and scored a TD like there was no defense in front of them.

The Rams also won just two road games all year. One against the lowly Niners, so that doesn't count. The other was a 17 point comeback against Seattle. I still think it was a fluke.

In the 6 road losses, the Rams gave up an average of 33 points, and that includes 31 points to a Miami team that cracked 30 points only one other time all season. In those 6 losses, the Rams averaged just 13 points scored, and never broke 20 points.

I'm not arguing that Seattle is a juggernaut... I'm just saying that St. Louis is a shell of a team on the road, and Seattle will have enough to win that game by a comfortable margin.

Posted by CJ at January 7, 2005 4:25 PM

FYI: Don't let my comment above fool you. I, like all others, know too little about sports to predict anything. I lose every time I'm in Vegas... I've vowed to stop betting on sports!

Posted by CJ at January 7, 2005 5:51 PM

Paul, I agree with your winners. The only uncertainty this weekend seems to be Packers-Vikings, as both have shown their ability to choke.

Posted by Cory at January 8, 2005 2:44 AM

i just sat through 3 hours of paul maguire for nothing.

Posted by RP at January 8, 2005 8:43 PM

uh o paul- your 0-2 so far. hopefully you`ll make 0-3 with the Bronco-colts game.

quick question: will there be a open house type "grab-the swag" type thing for the winners of your pick em pool? or do you have something else in mind?

back to football: how old is the chargers kicker? damn he looks young

Posted by Grant at January 9, 2005 12:31 AM

Grant, Paul is 1-1. He picked the Rams and the Chargers.

Nate Kaeding's overtime miss brought back the bad memory of Scott Norwood.

Posted by Cory at January 9, 2005 2:27 AM

2-0 against the spread. That's what I'm picking against. 4-0 against the spread in last year's round one, but then I think I was .500 the rest of the way.

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 9, 2005 3:01 AM

As for the pool, I got the address and want-list from the top three (not including me). I'll get that stuff out when I'm motivated to wrap and get to the post office.

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 9, 2005 3:02 AM

So four of the five SI "experts" got three of the four wild-card winners wrong.

In the magazine itself, their Dr. Z picked St. Louis to upset Seattle (after Tedy Bruschi piece, on p. 48, Jan. 10, 2005). But on the link you provided, Dr. Z picked Seattle.

Either Dr. Z had a change of heart, or SI has hired some copy editors from the New York Times.

My semi-educated pick: Pats again.

Posted by Eddie at January 10, 2005 1:01 AM

And, to put a wrap, that's 4-0 against the spread for me.

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 10, 2005 3:48 AM
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