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Wednesday, November 17, 2004

Full Disclosure: Aaron Gleeman of HardballTimes.com
Baseball, like searching for paparazzi pictures of Britney Spears on secluded beaches, is a year-round obsession here at PK.com. It's our national pastime, as American as using any means necessary to defeat one's foes, whether it be money, drugs or espionage.

Here in New York, we're lucky that baseball keeps our interest during the cold winter months when Herman Edwards tries to manage a clock, Kurt Warner eats carpet like a lesbian porno star or the Knicks show up to an arena. God knows how ugly it'll get if the Rangers and Islanders ever take the ice.

All of which makes The Hardball Times a great destination for baseball fans, in New York or otherwise, who don't want to kill themselves. It's chock full of original and interesting analysis, with a slant toward the statheads — Bill James disciples, if you will — for whom the number 69 is considered elusive, not because their sex life is deader than Marge Schott, but that no player has ever led the league in steals with that number. (See, you learn something new here every day.)

Today we chat with Aaron Gleeman, a HardballTimes.com silver slugger, about his site, a new THT publication and baseball in general.

Give us a quick synopsis of the The Hardball Times. When was it started and by whom? Who's your audience and what can they find there?
The Hardball Times is a baseball site I started up, along with Bill James' former assistant, Matthew Namee. It debuted in March of this year, a couple weeks before the start of the season. We currently have a lineup of 14 writers, along with the occasional guest piece from someone, like James himself.

Our audience is basically anyone who is passionate about baseball. We have plenty of stats, but we also pride ourselves on having a lot of great stuff that has absolutely nothing to do with numbers. We have a little something for everyone, from stats, research and analysis to humor, opinion and news.

You've published a 300-page review of the 2004 season, available in printed and electronic formats. What's in it?
We've got plenty of articles covering the 2004 season, from in-depth division reviews and a recap of the postseason to looks at the year in the minors, college baseball, the Japanese leagues and fantasy ball. We've also included some of our very best work from the website over the past year, as well as a ton of stats (so it's not only a good read, it can be a reference guide for those into such things).

One of the many stats found on your site is Win Shares. Can you explain how those are calculated and what they mean?
Win Shares is an invention of Bill James and it is different from most stats because it is rooted in a team's win-loss record. Each win by a team in worth three Win Shares and the stat is all about splitting the credit for those wins among the players on a team, giving each player a single number that represents their contribution. It counts fielding and clutch performance, along with the usual batting and pitching stuff.

One of the cool things about Win Shares is that it can look at every player in MLB history, so we can make comparisons across eras. And it puts players at different positions on the same scale, so you can compare Tom Seaver to Joe Morgan to Dan Quisenberry.

I see that Derek Jeter, one of four Yankees to rank among the top 10 AL players in Win Shares, had a Field rating of 7.2, fourth-highest in the league behind Minnesota shortstop Christian Guzman (9.6), Oakland catcher Damian Miller (7.9) and Oakland shortstop Bubba Crosby (7.5). Does this mean that Jeter does not, in fact, suck in the field?
For the first time in a long time, Derek Jeter did not, in fact, suck defensively this year. Of course, most Yankee fans will say he never sucked in the field, but the stats have generally been very clear that he did. Jeter's Fielding Win Shares this season were a career high, and far higher than any total he's posted since 1997. The previous three seasons, his Fielding Win Shares were 5.9, 4.6 and 1.4. However, as I wrote earlier this month, there was no way he deserved the American League Gold Glove, for a number of reasons.

A lot of people have wondered how Jeter could have had such bad fielding numbers for so long and then had a season where they were dramatically improved, but I think the answer is fairly simple. The same way hitters (Brady Anderson's 50 homers in 1996, Darin Erstad hitting .355 with 25 homers in 2000) and pitchers (Esteban Loaiza's lone good season in 2003) have great seasons out of nowhere, a fielder can do the same.

Some other theories I've heard are that he benefited from Alex Rodriguez being at third base and that the Yankees were better positioned defensively with Willie Randolph replacing Don Zimmer as bench coach. Or maybe Jeter just got better or played better. Next season will tell a lot, because each year is really just another data point, a sample of 162 (or fewer) games.

How would you rate Bud Selig as a commissioner? The owners sure are pleased with him, enough to unanimously extend his contract through 2009.
Yeah, and the owners seem to be the only ones, which might be a reason for concern. For awhile I refused to refer to Bud by name, calling him "The Devil" instead, so you could say I'm not a real big fan. I'm a lifelong Minnesotan and huge Twins fan, so the whole contraction thing sort of rubbed me the wrong way.

I think his solution to perceived problems has often been to radically change things, which is usually a bad idea. There's also the fact that he presided over the 1994-95 lockout, continued his involvement with the Brewers well past the time he became commissioner, jerked the Expos around, blackmailed various fans for new stadiums through threats of contraction and relocation, had some questionable bookkeeping, and said he'd step down when this term was up and then ... well, didn't. Plus, I refuse to take anyone with that haircut seriously.

How would you rate Bud Selig as a wingman on a night out in New York with Derek Jeter?
As if Jeter needs any help in that area. A little while back I wrote something sarcastic and disparaging about Captain Dreamboat, and one of my Yankee-fan readers sent me a very short, simple e-mail with a link to a story and the famous words: "How you like them apples?" I clicked on the link to find that, among other offenses, Jeter was now "dating" Jessica Alba.

The moral of the story is that I'm trying to convince people that the Jeter hype is way out of control while he's out banging supermodels and the star of Honey. I do wonder if Tim McCarver gets jealous when he reads about Jeter's off-field exploits; that is if he can take his face away from Jeter's ass long enough to read a newspaper.

If you could change three things about Major League Baseball, what would they be?

1. The commissioner.

2. The DH rule. As someone born in the 1980s, I'm not vehemently against it like a lot of fans I know, but I'd really like to see the same rules in both leagues, particularly since the AL and NL are no longer all that separate. It's the only major sport where teams can play games under vastly different rules than they normally do.

3. Did I say the commissioner already?

Ever seen a fan wearing a Barry Bonds No. 25 Giants jersey outside of San Francisco?
You know, I haven't, but I live all the way in Minnesota, where Vikings jerseys outnumber regular clothes by at least 3-to-1. However, I once bought a Bonds No. 25 Giants jersey online, had it shipped to me, and then found that it was far, far too small. So I sent it back and figured it was God's way of telling me he didn't want anyone wearing them. And it was too small because I was too big, but not in the "Bonds' head is the size of a Buick" way, just in the "Aaron likes to eat White Castles too much" way.

As I explained in a column earlier this year, Bonds is actually one of my all-time favorite players, along with Ted Williams, Frank Thomas and Rickey Henderson. Clearly, I am a big fan of huge jerks who are really good players. I can't really explain it, other than that it's probably the same sort of thinking that goes into me giving Jeter a hard time when he is constantly getting praised by the media. I do think there a lot more fans of Bonds than the media would have you believe, just because the public doesn't really care so much that he's not a great quote for beat writers.

If Curt Schilling's postseason performances were so gutsy, how come I don't recall seeing any close-up shots of him grimacing after throwing a pitch? Was FOX just not interested in that kind of drama? Or were they just satisfied with the ketchup-stained sock they gave him?
In FOX's defense, they didn't have time to show much of anything aside from the House, MD commercials ("YOU'RE RISKING A PATIENT'S LIFE!"). There's just no way real, live drama like the playoffs could compete with a show about a quirky doctor who walks around with a cane and a five o'clock shadow yelling stuff at people. When that show gets canceled — and it will, soon — it'll have the highest commercials-to-ratings ratio in the history of mankind (which is one of the only stats we don't track on THT).

Incidentally, I'm assuming you haven't yet seen the pictures of Schilling's ankle from the latest Jayson Stark column at ESPN.com. That was no ketchup.

Factoring some of the more sophisticated stats studied today, who would you consider to be among the most overrated and underrated players of today and all-time?
No one is as overrated by the average fan as Jeter (hear me out before you lynch me, please). He is, without question, a very good player, and perhaps even a Hall of Fame player if he continues to play at a high level for the rest of this decade. At the same time, if you ask the average fan, they will say he's one of the greatest players in baseball. And if you use some criteria other than "COUNT THE RINGZZZ" to judge players, that's simply not the case. At the same time, I think Jeter is actually underrated in the world of "statheads," a group which I call myself a member of (most of the time, at least).

The natural reaction to all the praise and hype and overrating Jeter gets is to go completely to the other side and say, essentially, "he stinks." That's just as wrong as the people who think he's one of the best handful of players in baseball. And I fully recognize just how difficult it is to discuss this subject with Yankee fans. I'm sure if I grew up in New York City instead of St. Paul I'd have a hard time listening to anyone bash Jeter too.

As for all-time overrated, the first player who popped into my head is Joe Carter, who racked up some impressive-looking RBI totals while generally being a very mediocre hitter. Jim Rice is also incredibly overrated by most people.

Underrated? Well, those guys aren't as fun to talk about, but I'd go with someone like Bert Blyleven or Joe Morgan. Also — and I know this sounds silly for a seven-time MVP — but I think Bonds is underrated in the sense that a lot of people don't realize just how above and beyond the rest of the competition he has been. Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams are underrated, too, which is a tough thing to do while playing in New York.

Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson and Barry Bonds are all over 40, yet remain among the best players in the game. Do you think Andy Stankiewicz, who turned 40 on August 10, hung it up too soon?
Unlike Jeter, Andy Stankiewicz is clearly a God among men. Because of that, I believe he is just biding his time until he makes his triumphant, messianic return to the world of baseball.

Also, you forgot to mention Boomer Wells in your 40-and-over list. He'll be 42 next year and he's pitching as well as ever, so perhaps the key to longevity is twinkies and booze.

Care to plug a few Hardball Times articles that you'd consider among the site's greatest hits?
For the Yankee fans in the crowd, I would suggest Larry Mahnken's (who is a huge Yankees fan) brilliant and hilarious ALCS preview, entitled "YANKEES ROOL!!! Boston is teh suck." Larry also does a weekly back-and-forth column called "Rivals in Exile" with Ben Jacobs, who is a Red Sox fan.

If you're into baseball history, we have a guy named Steve Treder who writes a column that is always one of my favorite things to read each week. And I guess I might as well plug my writing, which appears 4-5 times a week at THT.

PAUL'S RECAP: Great stuff from Aaron, despite the fact that he fails to recognize Derek Jeter's eternal greatness. Count the ringzzz, bro! Also, I'm not buying the whole Curt-Schilling-on-one-leg thing, considering he wasn't wearing any type of special shoe and basically admitted there was no pain. I saw Emmitt Smith win a game with a separated shoulder. I saw a flu-ridden Michael Jordan nearly collapse after an NBA Finals game. All I saw from Schilling was his head in a towel, the usual over-dramatization we're used to when he knows the cameras are on him.

I can see how Joe Carter was overrated. A .306 career on-base percentage average? A .464 slugging percentage? Yet, he was the highest-paid player in the game for three seasons. I can't see pitchers losing sleep over a guy they can get out seven out of 10 times. (Unlike, say, Jason "The Parasite" Giambi, who boasts a .411 career OBP and a .540 SLG percentage.)

Jim Rice being overrated, however, is a new one to me. His Similar Batters entry on Baseball-Reference.com show he's up there as a Hall of Fame candidate. And he's not even in Cooperstown, unlike Phillip Francis Rizzuto, who, while we all know was baseball's greatest shortstop not named Jeter, maybe kinda sorta possibly doesn't fit in with Ty Cobb and Jimmie Foxx.

All that being said, you should definitely check out The Hardball Times, quite an interesting resource for baseball aficionados and know-it-alls ... like me. I'll be looking forward to their analysis when the Yankees add Carlos Beltran and Randy Johnson to a 101-win team in 2005.

P.S. The DH rules. If I wanna see people hit .120, I'll watch women's softball, where every final is 1-0.

Category: Interviews | Permalink | Post a Comment (8)


Comments: Full Disclosure: Aaron Gleeman of HardballTimes.com

PK, be honest, that FOX coverage was SO biased against the Red Slobs (My team by the way), I read somewhere and agreed that all FOX needed was to superimpose the Babe in the dugout.

Posted by danny at November 17, 2004 3:44 AM

Nah, I never buy into that bias-of-coverage stuff. From a monetary perspective, though, they were gonna get better ratings if the Sox went to the World Series and stretched it to 7 games. One out of two ain't bad, I guess.

Posted by Paul Katcher at November 17, 2004 3:50 AM

The DH is bad.

Posted by lucy at November 17, 2004 8:23 AM

I whole-heartedly agree with the comments about the "Commish". I am sure if you went to his house you would have to cross the River Styx before getting to the front door. I think his reign went from being an over-seer/ arbitrator/manager to being a dictator of his own personal fantasy league.

Hallas

Posted by Jayhaux at November 17, 2004 11:56 AM

How could Selig be a dictator when he has unequivocal support of the men who own the entire league?

What I don't get is why people think he's bad for baseball when the people who own baseball think he's good.

In effect, the critics are saying that the owners don't know what's good for their own business, quite ironic considering their business acumen is far superior to Joe Q. Fan.

Posted by Paul Katcher at November 17, 2004 12:31 PM

Very good interview, but I still cannot believe you truly doubt Curt's injury to his ankle. You accuse him of wearing a ketchup-stained sock because he wasn't wincing everytime the camera was on him, then a few paragraphs later, of "the usual overdramaticization" whenever a camera is on him. You can't have it both ways. Hello, he didn't even know he had a bad ankle, thanks be to painkillers.


Aside from that, if you're gauging levels of pain by how FOX dramatizes every possible shot, then the camera should squarely be on my face whenever Tim McCarver speaks. Too bad Leiter isn't retiring this season so McCarver can go away.

Posted by Galvin at November 17, 2004 12:56 PM

Aside from Manny, Ortiz and Schilling, I think Leiter had the strongest postseason. I read maybe one criticism of him, but everyone else, including me, seemed to enjoy him.

Posted by Paul Katcher at November 17, 2004 1:00 PM

I think Baseball should be ran as a sport and not as a business. A sport being fan based. Not owner based. I think Selig has done some good things with the game, but very few. I don't want the game to turn into a boardmeeting on grass. I think if there was a little more profit sharing among the teams it would be a little more exciting. What if the Yankees did not have the never ending supply of cash? Would there be more of a balance among teams? I am not trying to pick on any one team just trying to see what others think. Thats all.

Hallas

Posted by Jayhaux at November 17, 2004 3:23 PM
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