Each baseball season brings with it a new sense of hope. The hope that one's favorite team adds a 27th World Series title to its resumé. The hope that Manny Ramirez breaks both legs — or at least one severely. The hope that Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte practice safe sex on their Houston Honeymoon. The hope that Cubs and Red Sox fans have plenty of Kleenex handy in this, their Season of Expectations. (Neither franchise exactly conjures up the word "clutch," if you know what I mean.)
As the Yankees' 2004 Tears Across MLB Tour readies to kick off in Japan on Tuesday, here's how I see the season shaping up:
AL East:
1. Yankees — The AL champs, who've won 103 and 101 games wins in the last two years, respectively, now feature a bolstered bullpen and the best back-up shortstop in baseball history.
2. Red Sox — Finished behind the Yankees six straight years, even with career years in 2003 for Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar, David Ortiz, Trot Nixon and Jason Varitek.
3-5. Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays — Or, as I like to call them, speed bumps.
AL Central:
1. Twins — This division absolutely blows, and I guess Minnesota blows least.
2. White Sox — They'd better win the division, because it might take 100 victories to win the wild-card.
3-5. Royals, Indians, Tigers — Remember when the Indians absolutely dominated this division? It was like an oasis in a half-century of sucking. Welcome back!
AL West:
1. Athletics — Lost a lot in the offseason, but I love their starting pitching (and inability to win a series in the postseason). Still owe them thank-you cards for 2000 and 2001.
2-3. Mariners, Angels — The Angels made a splash in the offseason, but the M's are always a threat to win 92-95 games. (Except for the time they won 116 and lost to the Yankees in the postseason.)
4. Rangers — Like an ugly friend among three hot broads.
NL East:
1. Phillies — Embrace the pressure, Phils fans, and try not to throw up on yourselves.
2. Braves — The Braves' 12-year run as division champs has to end at some point. After losing Sheffield, Lopez and Maddux, this is probably it.
3. Marlins — Meet the 2004 version of the 2003 Angels.
4. Mets — The offseason acquisitions of Shane Spencer, Karim Garcia and Todd Zeile could be enough to vault the Mets ahead of the Expos (as opposed to last year).
5. Expos — Wait, they had a winning season in 2003?
NL Central:
1. Cubs — Great starting pitching and illegal bats make for a deadly combination.
2. Astros — Who's gonna break the news to Roger that he can't join Andy on the mound during games?
3. Cardinals — Should be a typical St. Louis season: solid, not quite scary.
4,5,6. Pirates, Reds, Brewers — All least their new stadiums are nice.
NL West:
1. Giants — Only two everyday players remain from 2002: J.T. Snow and the guy with contacts at BALCO.
2, 3, 4, 5. Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Rockies, Padres — Even the Dodgers, with Robin Ventura batting fifth and Jeff Weaver as a No. 3 starter, are expected to compete for this lousy division. Yawn.
Baseball Futures Lines From BetOnSports.com:
• Odds to Win World Series: Yankees +140, Red Sox +200 and Cubs +250 lead the way. Comparatively, the A's might be a good value at +1000, which is what the D-Backs are at, and they're horrible. The Mets are at +3300 and the Brewers bring up the rear at +25000.
• Player Who Will Fail the First Steroid Test Will Be... American born -130, foreign born -110. I'd have to go American on this one, but are there going to be any steroid tests where the identity of players are publicly released?
• Will [Enter Player Here] Test Positive for Steroid Use before Dec. 31, 2004? Odds for Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield are all the same: Yes +250, No -400. See above. I don't think it'll ever happen. The government just wants to track down distributors. They're not looking to bring down MLB stars. And MLB sure doesn't give a shit.
• Which Team Will Commit the Most Errors in 2004? The Tigers lead at +400, but you might have a shot with the Yanks at +2000, which is where the Red Sox are at, as well.
• Which Team Will Hit the Most Home Runs in 2004? The Yankees are an even bet, with the Red Sox next at +400 and the Cubs at +500.
• Which Player Will Record the Most RBIs in 2004? Alex Rodriguez is in front at +200, with Albert Pujols closest at +350. I kinda like Jason Giambi at +1000, especially considering he'll be batting behind Jeter and A-Rod.
• Which Player Will Record the Most BBs in 2004? The only way Barry Bonds (-400) doesn't take the crown is if he misses playing time. Jim Thome and Sammy Sosa are both next at +500. Of those three, only Thome hasn't been accused of cheating.
• First Manager to Resign or Be Fired: Philadelphia's Larry Bowa is the best bet at +200. Least likely is Atlanta's Bobby Cox at +1800.
Other Baseball Season Preview Links
• The Sporting News' Power Poll — Ken Rosenthal has the Cubs No. 1, with the teams from the AL West ranked among the top eight, three teams from the NL Central in the top nine and nobody from the AL Central ranked higher than the Twins at 14.
• SoxSuck.com — A chronological history of amazing Boston Red Sox losses, remarkable collapses and other record-breaking feats. I love the fact that this site sponsors the doomed 2003 Red Sox team page on Baseball-Reference.com.
God do I love how arrogant Yankees fans are during the preseason....and during the spring.....and during the summer.....Well, hell, and the fall, too. From March to October the rest of the country gets to listen to them.
I have taken a screenshot of your site, dated it March 29th and saved it on my desktop, Paul. In October, we are going to go back and look at this and see how you did.
Predictions made by this Midwestern Baseball Fan:
Red Sox win AL East by 2 games; Yankees take Wild Card
Royals win AL Central; White Sox finish in second, 4 1/2 games behind.
A's take AL West by 1/2 game over the Angels.
National League? I like what you have, but expect the Dodgers to compete with the Giants in the West. The NL Central is going to be the best race in baseball to watch again this year, but it's not important because whomever wins the Red Sox/A's ALCS will win the Series.
That's my bid from Kansas City. Good luck.
Posted by Andy P at March 29, 2004 3:26 AM