A couple of days ago, I lamented that this is a pretty bland Super Bowl matchup, but make no mistake: the two best (if not the most interesting) reps from each conference are in Houston.
The Patriots beat the AFC's best competition, the Titans and Colts, by a total of 13 points, not an astounding number, but good enough. The Panthers dominated Dallas before winning on the road against the Rams and Eagles, who established themselves as NFC powers virtually all season long. They may have caught a couple of breaks, too, with Mike Martz's questionable game management and Donovan McNabb's injury.
Throughout the year, the AFC positioned itself as the more dominant conference, and I felt that the Super Bowl champion was crowned when New England finished off Indianapolis. Nothing occurred in the NFC title game that changed my mind. The Panthers have a better running game than do the Patriots, but it's a running game that won't be measured against New England's counterpart unit, but rather its defense. In all other phases of the game, save punting, I see New England as stronger.
Only four times in the past 37 Super Bowls has the underdog lost but covered the spread. Nine times it won outright, and once there was a tie. Thus, 23 times the favorite won and covered. I think we're headed for No. 24.
(One trend that does go against my pick is that Troy Brown of the Patriots lost to Steve Smith of the Panthers in the annual pre-Super Bowl video game contest. In the last eight years, the winner of the video game has gone on to win the Super Bowl. ESPN.com's Bill Simmons has a hilarious recap of that development.)
Spread: New England by 7
Paul's Pick: Patriots 27, Panthers 17
Last Round Against the Spread: 1-1
Total Playoffs Against the Spread: 7-3
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Here are some other bets to consider:
• Number of beers I will drink: over/under 9
• Percentage of viewers who will be saddened when finding out that the team of Mike Patrick, Joe Theismann and Paul McGuire won't be announcing the game: over/under 0
• Number of bottles thrown at the screen when TV cameras find Roger Clemens in the stands: over/under - 12
• Number of times CBS will show video of Phil Simms' superhuman performance (22-for-25, 268 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT) in Super Bowl XXI: over/under - not enough
• Odds that Drew Bledsoe and Lawyer Milloy will watch more than half the game: 5/1
• Percentage of straight male Patriots fans who will cringe every time a female mentions how hot Tom Brady is: over/under 100
• Seconds it will take me to puke if a member of the Patriots, a team playing in its seventh straight game as a favorite, bemoans not getting enough respect: over/under 4
Keep taking cheap shots at the Bills. I'll just keep my mouth shut regarding the Giants.
I think it's going to be a closer game than you predicted. I've been doing pretty well picking the underdogs all postseason. While I think the Pats have a better chance of winning, I have to go with the Panthers in the upset.
Posted by Cory at January 30, 2004 2:21 AM