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Wednesday, January 14, 2004

NFL Playoff Preview and Picks: Conference Championship Round
Last weekend promised to be the most exciting one of the NFL season, and it did not disappoint, with all four underdogs covering and two winning outright. We didn't need any clowns pulling cell phones out of goalposts, no pregame soliloquies from Ray Lewis on the war-like mentality of football, no tash-talk sound bites from Shannon Sharpe, not even a peep from Warren Sapp.

To the right are the faces of the NFL playoffs so far: the four quarterbacks who have done their talking on the field. They are playmakers, but Playmakers this ain't.

Sunday's games:

INDIANAPOLIS (14-4) at NEW ENGLAND (15-2), 3 p.m. ET, CBS
The weather in Foxboro, Mass., is expected to be 31 degrees under partly cloudy skies. Is that extreme enough to limit Peyton Manning's throwing ability or freeze out the Colts in general? I don't think so. The Colts aren't the first team to give up tons of yards and points to the Chiefs — whose offense was loaded with Pro Bowlers — and that was the most lopsided seven-point game you'll ever see. For me, it boils down to this: In each of the last two weeks, eight NFL teams have suited up, and the Colts have looked the best, by far, each time. One week after handing a team its first home loss of the season, I think the Colts do it again. (Full rooting disclosure: I win $160 if the Colts win the Super Bowl.)

Spread: New England by 3
Paul's Pick: Colts 27, Patriots 17

CAROLINA (13-5) at PHILADELPHIA (13-4), 6:45 p.m. ET, FOX
I'm sticking with what I wrote last week about the Panthers. They've succeed with power running and blazing speed, two things that are not prone to slumping. A lot of that power may be sapped, however, as Stephen Davis remains questionable after missing practice Wednesday. Conventional wisdom says that if the Eagles could give up 200 yards rushing and allow eight sacks against the Packers and still win, then the Panthers are in for a load of trouble. But those are flaws that don't get shored up in a week, and Philly benefited from a questionable coaching decision, an unlikely 4th-and-26 conversion and a reckless heave from Brett Favre to escape. I think the Panthers could be headed to Houston, but I am hoping for another Philadelphia escape. (Full rooting disclosure: Donovan McNabb and I share the same esteemed degree from Syracuse University.)

Spread: Philadelphia by 4
Paul's Pick: Eagles 23, Panthers 21

---

Last week against the spread: 2-2
Record against the spread in playoffs: 6-2

Category: Sports | Permalink | Post a Comment (17)


Comments: NFL Playoff Preview and Picks: Conference Championship Round

Dr. Z, who went 4-0 last week with the underdogs, picks the favorites to win on the number. (The line has moved 1/2 point in favor of the favorites since he wrote his column, so technically he was picking the underdogs at the time he wrote.)

Patriots 27, Colts 24
Eagles 20, Panthers 16

http://premium.si.cnn.com/pr/subs/siexclusive/2004/01/13/drz0119/index.html

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 14, 2004 7:46 PM

pats vs. colts is going to be one hell of a game.

Posted by jeef at January 14, 2004 11:44 PM

Every game the Eagles need a game-winning or game-tying drive, I remember McNabb on November 14, 1998 against Virginia Tech.

Two seconds left on the clock, Syracuse down 4 points. McNabb throws up on the sidelines, calmly walks onto the field and throws a touch down pass back across the field to a wide open tight end. He's amazing.

Posted by CJ at January 15, 2004 2:57 AM

By the way... McNabb threw up from sheer exhaustion, not nervousness.

Posted by CJ at January 15, 2004 2:58 AM

Duh... sorry for consecutive comments... but I forgot my picks:

New England 34, Indianapolis 31
Indy still puts points on the board, but the Pats have just enough to pull it out.

Philly 27, Carolina 16
Sorry, the Panthers already feel like they've won their big one. Eagles are hungrier.

Posted by CJ at January 15, 2004 2:59 AM

Colts are un-stoppable right now.... even New England's D can't do it. As much as I think Carolina is a better team from top to bottom, the Eagles are due.... third trip in a row, this time they'll make it, although I will take the 4.5 points for Carolina.


Indy (to win)

Carolina (+4.5)


Lay down your $$, those are the winners.

Posted by Johnny FlopBoot at January 15, 2004 8:19 AM

The Colts look unstoppable but only the last 2 games. Manning torched the Pats defense a few weeks ago but still lost. Meanwhile, while the Patriots for whatever reason don't inspire fear into the hearts of their opponents they keep winning.

Homefield, cold, and they keep inventing ways to win. I think the weather might shave a field goal or two off of the scoreboard but I think betting the Pats AND the over is still the way to go here.

Patriots 34, Colts 28

Posted by henry at January 15, 2004 10:20 AM

Patriots 34, Colts 24

Posted by jeef at January 15, 2004 10:38 AM

Shit! I meant Patriots 34, Colts 27

Posted by jeef at January 15, 2004 10:41 AM

hey Paul...how about a Carolina v New England Super Bowl. Talk about a game the world would give two shits about eh. The networks have to be a bit nervous about that matchup...that NC market is huge.HA!!

Posted by jeffcaw at January 15, 2004 10:56 AM

No doubt TV execs and programmers want a Peyton Manning-Donovan McNabb matchup. The only knock on the Patriots, from a general interest standpoint, is that they were in the Super Bowl just a couple of years ago.

From a business angle, the game with the most on the line this weekend is, by far, Eagles-Panthers.

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 15, 2004 11:15 AM

Carolina? Bah! I said it last week and I'm saying it again. They're just a speedbump on Philly's road to the SuperBowl. McNabb needs to show the world he's the real thing and Rush Limbaugh is a real hypocritical douchebag. Philly wins and beats the spread.

I also said the best game of the year would be Indy/New England and I stand by that. After last week's performance, Manning looks due. But it's going to be cold for the Dome-boy from the South. Also, while the Colts offense might be hot, they also gave up 31 ponts last week. Everyone talks about Manning, but where is the Colt's defense? Can they stop the Patriots from scoring? In a word -- No. It will come down to coaching. Belichek is a defensive genius. Manning won't be getting 38 points this week. It will be tight, and Indy might beat the spread, but the Patriots make it to the Super Bowl.

Posted by Larry at January 15, 2004 11:48 AM

I gotta agree with Larry.....it'll be one or two plays that make the difference on the Pats game, called by the coach.
I like the Colts' chances, but Peyton changing the plays at the line is gonna cost him in New England.
As for Philly and Carolina, Philly is in on a wing and a prayer, and Carolina looked good in their last win. Either way, I couldn't care less who wins. I'll take Philly in a squeaker.

Posted by Neal at January 15, 2004 5:40 PM

I like New England by 10 points plus. Indy's had a nice playoff run, but it disguises their average defense (KC didn't punt last week either). What would the line have been on this game if it were played prior to the Denver playoff game? 6 or 7? They just haven't played a team this good yet.

I would love Carolina this week IF Stephen Davis were healthy. Carolina can run the ball, control clock, and play defense. Seriously, how are the Eagles going to score? Average to below average running game and a crappy receiving corps. McNabb is the entire offense right now. I still like Carolina and the 4 1/2 even with Foster, but Davis makes that line one of the most enticing this year.

Posted by Double B at January 16, 2004 2:20 AM

Quick question, how can a true blue Giant fan root for the hated Eagles?

3 teams (4 when I add the Saints) I could never root for are the 'boys, skins, and eagles.

They are the Giant's equivalent of the red-sux.

I'd like to see a Carolina-Colts SB.

NE's been there so I've already seen the Brady show.

Now I'd like to see Manning get his day in the sun, or under the dome or whatever they have now in Houston.

And even though I have no love for Carolina, Philly is still Philly.

W.C. Fields was right.

On his headstone it says, "I'd rather be here then in Philadelphia."

;)

Posted by Pat at January 16, 2004 11:00 AM

Even though my picks last week were hideous, I figured I'd try again:

Philly 24, Carolina 13
Patriots 31, Indy 24

Posted by Ken Goldstein at January 17, 2004 6:49 AM

WHO'S YOUR DADDY KATCHER???

Posted by jeffcaw at January 20, 2004 9:38 AM
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