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Thursday, January 8, 2004

NFL Playoff Preview and Picks: Divisional Round
You pick winners in sports based on two factors: flaws and strengths. Yet, how can you find many flaws with teams that got here either by a) beating another playoff team just a week ago (Titans, Colts, Packers, Panthers); or b) dominating the regular season to earn a bye and a home game in the divisional round (Patriots, Chiefs, Rams, Eagles)? This is definitely a week for the positive-thinking person.

Last week, all four losing teams were led by coaches who have won the Super Bowl (Holmgren, Billick, Shanahan and Parcells). This week, two coaches (Vermeil of the Chiefs, Belichick of the Patriots) fit that bill. Will the trend continue?

Saturday's games:

CAROLINA (12-5) at ST. LOUIS (12-4), 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX
These teams come in with 24 combined wins, but are led by quarterbacks with one total playoff start, that by Jake Delhomme of the Panthers, who posted a 104.5 rating against Dallas' respected defense last week. This week, he could benefit from great field position as the Rams committed the most turnovers in the NFL. They also lead the league in takeaways, but the Panthers don't seem to me as a reckless bunch. They beat Dallas with power running and speed from Steve Smith, two qualities that don't lend themselves to slumping (unlike a West Coast-style passing game that relies on consistency and accuracy).
Spread: St. Louis by 7
Paul's Pick: Rams 27, Panthers 21

TENNESSEE (13-4) at NEW ENGLAND (14-2), 8:30 p.m. ET, CBS
There are two lines of thinking in terms of the effects of playing a week after winning a backyard brawl against the Ravens, as the Titans did last week. Tennessee could either be physically and mentally exhausted, or they could carry the emotion into its game against the Pats, who were perfect at home in 2003 and became only the third team in league history to finish the season with 12 straight victories, including a 38-30 win at home against the Titans to start the roll. If only I had the energy to look up how teams perform a week after a matchup in Baltimore.
Spread: New England by 6
Paul's Pick: Patriots 23, Titans 21

Sunday's games:

INDIANAPOLIS (13-4) at KANSAS CITY (13-3), 1 p.m. ET, CBS
What a difference a week makes in terms of bettors' faith in the Colts and Peyton Manning in the postseason. I don't know if I'd take the Chiefs on a neutral field, but I think a week off for eight Pro Bowlers and one of the best home-field advantages in all of the NFL (8-0 at Arrowhead in '03) counts for a lot.
Spread: Kansas City by 3
Paul's Pick: Chiefs 28, Colts 21

GREEN BAY (11-6) at PHILADELPHIA (12-4), 4:45 p.m. ET
Both teams are decidedly better since the Eagles pulled out a 17-14 victory at Lambeau on a Monday night. Now the scene shifts to Philly, where the Eagles have been resting since finishing its season with 10 wins in 11 games. I don't see the Eagles losing till next week, as is customary for them in the NFC Championship game.
Spread: Philadelphia by 5.5
Paul's Pick: Eagles 24, Packers 17

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Last week against the spread: 4-0
Record against the spread in playoffs: 4-0

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Today's Sports LInks:

Ryan Perry's Sports Blog — A PK.com disciple is doing a great job with his web-friendly (scannable, opinionated, informed) sports posts. Highly recommended for your bookmarks.

Mickey Mantle's Place in Baseball History — Taking my argument of Mantle vs. Sosa a bit further, Baseball Beat's argument uses modern stats to assert The Mick's overwhelmingly value from 1954-64 was unparalleled.

Billy Baldwin a Wresting Hall of Famer — Yes, the actor received an Outstanding American award in 2003. Know who else is a Hall of Famer? Kurt Angle. It's true. It's true.

Peter Gammons: Rethinking My Vote for Rose — The usually level-headed scribe takes offense to Pete Rose's selfish confessional during Hall of Fame election week and calls him "perhaps the lowest figure in baseball in my 32 years of covering the sport."

Hype Fit for a King — Bill Simmons says early returns on LeBron James are as good as expected and wouldn't be surprised if he averages a triple-double for an entire season someday. I have been quite impressed with James' game and respect for the game. So far, he has proven to be an asset to the NBA.

Category: Sports | Permalink | Post a Comment (22)


Comments: NFL Playoff Preview and Picks: Divisional Round

Okay... I'll do it...

In games after playing Baltimore:

Week 2 (0-1)
Pittsburgh lost to KC 41-20
Week 3 (1-1)
Cleveland Beat SF 13-12
Week 4 (1-2)
San Diego lost to Oakland 34-31 in OT
Week 5 (2-2)
Kansas City beat Denver 24-23
Week 6 (No game, Baltimore had a bye week 5)
Week 7 (No game, Arizona was on a bye after game vs. Baltimore)
Week 8 (3-2)
Cincy beat Seattle 27-24
Week 9 (3-3)
Denver lost to New England 30-26
Week 10 (4-3)
Jacksonville beat Indy 28-23
Week 11 (5-3)
St. Louis beat Chicago 23-21
Week 12 (6-3)
Miami beat Washington 24-23
Week 13 (7-3)
Seattle beat Cleveland 34-7
Week 14 (8-3)
San Fran beat Arizona 50-14
Week 15 (9-3)
Cincy beat San Fran 41-38
Week 16 (9-4)
Oakland lost to GB 41-7
Week 17 (10-4)
Cleveland beat Cincy 22-14

There it is, teams are 10-4 in weeks following their games with Baltimore. However, only 3 of those 10 wins were by more than a TD. Don't know what that means...

Posted by CJ at January 8, 2004 12:33 AM

Pretty damning words from Mr. Gammons, though it makes me wonder who the post-1970 baseball scumbag runner-up is.

As for the Ravens question, I thought I heard that there was some after-Lewis effect, but a quick check shows that teams were 10-4 with a bye the week following a Ravens game (including 7 out of the last 8, when a more tired. Now, granted, one or two of those wins might still be said to indicate an effect (I'd have to really break down things like total yardage vs season average), but that sure doesn't seem like any kind of one.

And while we're here:

New England 31, Titans 13
Indianapolis 27, Chiefs 20
St. Louis 20, Carolina 10
Philadelphia 34, Green Bay 16

Posted by Ken Goldstein at January 8, 2004 12:34 AM

Dang, my fellow Up for Poker poster beat me to it, and with actual scores, too...

Posted by Ken Goldstein at January 8, 2004 12:35 AM

That's okay Ken... I figured you'd be there if I wasn't :-)

And while we're here:
New England 24, Tennessee 22
Indianapolis 37, Kansas City 31
Carolina 20, St. Louis 13
Philadelphia 27, Green Bay 14

Posted by CJ at January 8, 2004 1:43 AM

Have to disagree with y'all...Panthers, Titans, Colts, Packers.

I'll admit the Titans pick is a sentimental one. As Paul noted- it starts getting tough to pick 'em at this point. They're all good teams. Okay, maybe I'll go with the Eagles instead of the Packers.

It's all pretty much 50-50. ;-)

Posted by lucy at January 8, 2004 2:17 AM

Glad you finally got around to mentioning wrestling, the world's oldest and greatest sport.

Kurt Angle, of course, is in the National Wrestling Hall of Fame for winning a 1996 Olympic gold medal and two NCAA national championships at Clarion. It is not for his antics in what Rod Serling once called that "cheap vaudeville." Angle cried his eyes out after winning a razor-thin and controversial decision in the 1996 finals. He later bounced around trying to get TV broadcast work for a few years before ending up with WWE.

Billy Baldwin has also done a lot to help wrestling, including organizing against the closing of the program at his alma mater, SUNY Binghamton, where he wrestled. He can sometimes be seen at wrestling events here in NYC, as he was at the World Championships of Freestyle Wrestling at MSG in Sept.

The top college program in NYC is Columbia, a Div. I team with some All-American candidates. If you can get out yonder to Hempstead, Hofstra is a top ten DI team.

As for the NFL playoffs, too bad my Bengals didn't make it this year. BTW, Stephen Neal, a former NCAA and World Champion wrestler, was a lineman on the Patriots, but has been on injured reserve forever. I asked him when I saw him at the World Championships in Sept. if or when he was coming back, and he was not sure, and I haven't followed up since then.

Posted by Eddie at January 8, 2004 6:29 AM

Wrestling is cool.

"Wrastling" sucks.
---------------------------

You heard it here first (well, maybe not but who cares):

Tennesee

Indianapolis

St. Louis

Green Bay

Lay your $$ down, those are the picks.

Posted by Colts = Superbowl '04 at January 8, 2004 9:25 AM

Thanks for the link, PK. Can't argue with your picks, here are mine:

These playoffs may be the toughest in a long time to find a justifiable bet against the favorite - spread or none.

I usually turn to 'comfort level' when I'm stuck on my picks. I can't see Tennessee, with all their injuries, going into freakin' freezing weather and coming out with a win. And Carolina has some speedsters, but I don't think turf is their game. No one could possibly feel comfortable in Arrowhead (no crazy, irrelevent sponsor yet?), no matter how many points they won by the week before. So I guess my upset pick has to be Green Bay over Philly, seeing as how Eagle fans have been known to boo their own team during playoff games when things aren't going right. That's gotta be comforting for the Pack.

Posted by RP at January 8, 2004 11:34 AM

Chiefs prove how overrated they really are, and that a 8-0 record at home means little, after the best quarterback this year blows them out of the water. This will set up the best game of the year -- Indy vs. New England next week. This, I think, will come down to coaching, leaving Indy watching the SuperBowl from home.

Favre already blew his load on Monday Night Football. So, Eagles romp, if only to prove once again what a big, fat, drug-addled, criminal idiot Rush Limbaugh really is. As for the Titans game, the record after the Ravens? Who gives a fig? The winner of this game will be just another speedbump on the Eagles road to the Superbowl.

So you have it here first, kids. New England vs. Philly in Big Game. Haven't decided yet who wins.

You're on your own for the spreads.

Posted by Larry Carrel at January 8, 2004 12:47 PM

Okay, I'm an idiot. I didn't mean the Titans, I meant the Caroline/Rams winner will be irrelevant as a speedbump to Philly.

Posted by Larry at January 8, 2004 12:51 PM

I'm still waiting to hear the Cass picks...

Posted by Cory at January 8, 2004 4:33 PM

If your picks are as deadly accurate as they were last week, I need to go to the bank...

Posted by Jeff at January 8, 2004 10:50 PM

You must know that I don't typically bet. I used to predict final scores of all college football games on AOL, back around 1998. Some dude IMed me and said I lost him $1,000. I went back and saw that I was even for the week, which has been my career pattern. And thus I don't typically bet.

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 9, 2004 12:07 AM

I'm going to revise my New England/Tennessee pick to 20-10; apparently the gametime temperature is going to be something like -5, with wind chill at -20. Sounds like fun.

Posted by Ken Goldstein at January 9, 2004 12:10 AM

I read an article in the local paper this morning about how the NFL in the past 3 years has scheduled a PrimetimeNightime Playoff game in this round of the playoffs and every time it has been in the Northernmost city with the most chance of inclement weather (this year New England where the previous post said it will be -5). The jist of the article was that the NFL doesn't care about the fans, only the ratings and $$ (duh.) and that by scheduling a possible snow game they would have a chance to attract the more casual/curious viewer as well.

Just thought it was interesting, don't put much stock in it though... it's kind of funny how no matter what the topic or situation someone somewhere has a theory about how someone else is up to some kind of sinister plan wherein they're fucking everyone else.

Posted by Booyanga John at January 9, 2004 9:14 AM

Bill Simmons, who went 4-0 last week (my picks were posted first, so I didn't copy), has made his selections for the divisional round. He likes:

Carolina +7; Panthers 28, Rams 27

New England -6; Patriots 26, Titans 3

Indianapolis +3; Colts 34, Chiefs 17

Philadelphia -5.5; Eagles 24, Packers 17


http://espn.go.com/page2/s/simmons/040108.html


SI's Dr. Z, who kept picking the Giants to win this year till it was clear they couldn't beat Florida A&M, chimes in with:

Carolina +7; Rams 20, Panthers 17

Tennessee +6; Patriots 13, Titans 10

Indianapolis +3; Colts 38, Chiefs 31

Green Bay +5.5; Eagles 24, Packers 20


http://premium.si.cnn.com/pr/subs/siexclusive/2004/01/06/drz0112/index.html

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 9, 2004 1:07 PM

After both my Saturday picks came through, I was envisioning a perfect 11-0 postseason. Alas, I picked both favorites Sunday, and the weekend finished with the underdogs covering each game.

How 'bout these games, though? After perhaps the most exciting MLB playoffs ever (1986 being the only competition), this NFL postseason has already produced some amazing games. And who knows when, or if, Peyton Manning will come back down to earth. I have never seen an offense run so flawlessly in back-to-back games. Has he even come close to making a mistake?

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 11, 2004 8:22 PM

No one had a better week than Dr. Z. He went 4-0, picking all the underdogs, nailed the Colts-Chiefs final score, nailed the margin of victory in the Pats-Titans game, had the Panthers winning outright and picked the Eagles to win but not cover. Amazing.

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 11, 2004 8:26 PM

Dr. Z's picks were amazing, especially considering he picked all four underdogs and teams which played last week which don't typically fare well after the wild-card round.

Lines are out for this week's games. I'll tentatively take Carolina +4.5 and New England -3.

Posted by Double B at January 11, 2004 10:04 PM

I was originally going to comment about the insanity of Z picking all four underdogs, but damn, does that guy look good right about now. Much better than me.

Posted by Ken Goldstein at January 12, 2004 1:15 AM

I'm no Dr. Z, but I did pick the winners straight up.

Posted by Larry at January 12, 2004 11:08 AM

I think I was pretty close. Picked all winners outright, and only lost the Philly-GB game because I picked the score with my heart instead of my head :-) I was only off on the Indy-KC score by one point.

Oh... and never take my picks to Vegas. I suck at betting sports.

Posted by CJ at January 12, 2004 8:23 PM
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