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Thursday, January 1, 2004

NFL Playoff Preview and Picks: Wild-Card Round
If I was good at betting on sports, I would live in Las Vegas and not New York. But here's how I see things shaking out this weekend, as Peyton Manning looks for his first postseason victory and Bill Parcells returns to the playoffs with his fourth different franchise.

Saturday's games:

TENNESSEE (12-4) at BALTIMORE (10-6), 4:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Twelve wins didn't get the Titans much this year, as they must hit the road against a former AFC Central rival that has beaten them five straight times. Tennessee finished the 1999 season at 13-3 and made the playoffs as a wild card, advancing to Super Bowl XXXIV... Tennessee's Steve McNair was the only NFL QB to break triple digits in passer rating (100.4), as he threw for 24 TDs with only 7 INTs... Ravens RB Jamal Lewis has the fourth-most rushing yards (4,767) in the first 48 games of an NFL career... Baltimore LB Ray Lewis had 6 INTs and scares the absolute shit out of me.
Spread: Tennessee by 1
Paul's Pick: Titans 23, Ravens 21

DALLAS (10-6) at CAROLINA (11-5), 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Cowboys have won four straight in the series, including a 24-20 win at Dallas on Nov. 23... Dallas rode its league-best defense (253.5 ypg allowed) to the playoffs, as it sure as shit wasn't QB Quincy Carter (71.4 passer rating) or leading rusher Troy Hambrick's 3.5 yards per carry... Panthers won seven games by three points or less, tying an NFL single-season record (7, Arizona, 1998)... Carolina RB Stephen Davis set a club record with 1,444 rushing yards and had seven games of 100+
Spread: Carolina by 3
Paul's Pick: Panthers 24, Cowboys 17

Sunday's games:

SEATTLE (10-6) at GREEN BAY (10-6), noon ET, FOX
Packers head coach Mike Sherman served as TE coach under Seahawks head coach Mike Holmgren from 1997-98 in Green Bay and as offensive coordinator for Holmgren in Seattle in 1999... Packers QB Brett Favre led the NFL with 32 passing TDs, while RB Ahman Green led the NFC in both rushing yards (1,883) and TDs scored (20)... Packers are 23-2 when Green rushes for at least 100 yards... Packers are in the playoffs for the ninth time in the past 11 seasons and have lost just once at Lambeau Field in the postseason, that coming last year against the Falcons.
Spread: Green Bay by 7
Paul's Pick: Packers 28, Seahawks 24

DENVER (10-6) at INDIANAPOLIS (12-4), 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Broncos have won eight of past 11 against the Colts, including a 31-17 win at Indianapolis on Dec. 21... Denver coach Mike Shanahan is 7-2 in the postseason... Colts QB Peyton Manning had an AFC-high 29 TD passes and has thrown 25+ TD passes in each of the past six seasons, the only player in NFL history to accomplish that feat... Colts are 27-5 when RB Edgerrin James scores a TD. He rushed for 11 scores this season... "Idiot kicker" Mike Vanderjagt had a perfect season for the Colts , making good on all 37 field-goal attempts and 46 PAT tries.
Spread: Indianapolis by 3
Paul's Pick: Colts 31, Broncos 24

NFL Playoff Links:

Dr. Z's Forecast — Titans, Cowboys, Packers, Broncos.

Tackling Five NFL Playoff Myths — A Sporting News cover story.

What's With the Gaudy Rushing Stats?Slate's Allen Barra explains the Season of the Running Back.

John Clayton's 10 Things to Watch — How's this for a stat? Only five receivers with more than 70 receptions made the playoffs.

Category: Sports | Permalink | Post a Comment (54)


Comments: NFL Playoff Preview and Picks: Wild-Card Round

I would love to see the Cowboys and the Eagles fight it out for the NFC title in the end. My two favorite teams. If this were to happen, then the Cowboys would be playing the Eagles in Philadelphia. You couldn't drag me away from that game.

The Eagles have a bye week so my focus is on the Cowboys this weekend. I really hope that Donovan Mcnabb is using this week off to find some new dance moves, as the Michael Jackson Thriller moves last week were weak.

Posted by Cass at January 1, 2004 8:00 PM

Ditto, except I don't figure point spreads- just win or lose.

BTW, after a few days in Toronto, including a trip to the Hockey Hall of Fame (very cool), I have to say again that hockey is, indeed, the very bestest game around. ;-)

Posted by lucy at January 1, 2004 11:24 PM

I agree with lucy about hockey. As much as I love football, hockey is my favorite sport. I was in Toronto a few years back for the NHL All Star game and I had an incredible time there. As I am sure that Lucy was with her sons on her trip to Toronto, she probably did not go to the strip clubs. Toronto has some of the best strip clubs I have ever been to. My male travel companions on that trip agree with me. One of them grew up near Toronto (he was a NHL player) so he showed us the whole city. What a great place to visit.

Posted by Cass at January 2, 2004 8:27 AM

Toronto is a fantastic city indeed. I have family who live there and I grew up two hours outside of it. I'll be spending a couple of weeks in T'O this summer.

Posted by at January 2, 2004 1:50 PM

Wow, I'm a bit surprised to hear everyone's praises for Toronto, but it is still nice to hear none the less.

As a long time lurker (and once per year NYC dive bar drinker with Paul), it is always a nice break to read everyone's thoughts and comments on Paul's chosen topic of the day. Toronto has a little bit of everything and is a great play to come and play. I just don't recommend it from January to March for anyone who is used to warmer climates!

And Cass, as someone who gets paid to go to bars, you can take it from me that while the strip clubs in Toronto are great, Montreal is even better.

Hope everyone had a safe and happy New Year and that the resolutions have not all been broken yet!

Mike

Posted by Mike at January 2, 2004 2:21 PM

Mike,

I'm a well-travelled Canadian.... I recommend T'O to people as THE place to visit. Plus, while Montreal may have some cool dives, it isn't known for having the most polite people (sorry, but many have found that to be true; just had to point it out).

Happy 2004!

Posted by at January 2, 2004 2:35 PM

ESPN.com's Sports Guy posted his picks and agrees with my against the spread on all four games, which does not bode well for his quest for an 11-0 record in the playoffs.

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 2, 2004 9:53 PM

No strip clubs in Toronto for me, but one hell of a lot of drinking. Including one night where my bar tab, just for me, not counting the three drink lunch or the two drink dinner, was almost $100.

I'm not sure if this is a commentary on my children's powers of observation, or instead a mark against my parenting...but when we got back in the states and were out at a restaurant, I picked up the beer list on the table and asked my boys what was missing from it? Took the nine year old about 3 seconds to pipe up: Labatt's Blue.

The Canadians like their beer almost as much as they like hockey. Eh?

Posted by lucy at January 2, 2004 10:08 PM

Lucy,

But just think....that $100 bar tab is in Canadian currency. :) So, if you charged your drinks on your credit card, you'd actually be paying in US currency and saving some $$$ in the process. Gotta love the currency exchange. And you are so right, Canadians treat beer and hockey with the utmost reverence. Hope you and your sons had a great time in the Great White North. :)

Posted by at January 2, 2004 11:42 PM

paul-
please don't hate on "my" Broncos :)
a friend of mine is in vegas as i type:
New England is a 2 to 1 Fav to win it all.

Posted by Grant at January 3, 2004 3:25 AM

I am still sticking with the Cowboys today, regardless of your pick:). I think this is the year of the Tuna, and the Cowboys are going to go all the way.

Back to the Toronto topic again, I am not a fan of any Canadian beer. To me, every beer I drank in Canada tasted like Natty Light. I don't drink that shit while in this country, so I am not going to another country and drinking something just like it. I paid extra for my "imported" bottles of Miller Lite and it was worth it.

Posted by Cass at January 3, 2004 8:10 AM

Labatt's Blue all the way!!! With all respect, you can keep your Miller Lite (which I once heard someone say tastes like cat urine strained through a dirty sock. There's a visual for you...lol) No worries, to each his/her own.

Posted by at January 3, 2004 1:12 PM

I just got back from Vegas (where I placed exactly one sports bet [I know nothing about college sports], a futures bet on the Orioles to win the pennant), and am happy to pass along, for entertainment purposes only, of course, the current odds to win the Super Bowl:

Rams: 2/1
Patriots: 2/1
Eagles: 5/2
Chiefs: 3/1
Colts: 9/2
Titans: 6/1
Cowbows: 6/1
Vikings: 7/1
Broncos: 8/1
Packers: 8/1
Panthers: 8/1
Ravens: 15/1
Bengals: 25/1
Seahawks: 25/1

Keep in mind that some of these (like the Cowboys) may reflect a higher fanbase rather than true chances.

Posted by Ken Goldstein at January 3, 2004 3:21 PM

Wow, a comment actually related to something I wrote about. Thanks, Ken.

Out of that group, I would say the Vikings and Bengals are the worst bets, and not just because they're not in the playoffs.

The Titans probably have the best value, though I don't see anything very attractive.

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 3, 2004 3:37 PM

Here's another comment related to something you actually wrote about. Ravens over Titans; Panthers over Cowboys. I don't do the point spreads.

Posted by at January 3, 2004 4:27 PM

Um...yeah, I shoulda edited those out myself, I guess. The sheet I grabbed was from the Sahara and was as of 12/26 11am. Here is a more current listing from a different source. I kinda like Tennesse as well, but am pulling for Denver, because of the Army Advanced Individual Training guy I sat next to on the plane who was heading back into training and won't get to watch his beloved Broncos.

New England Patriots: 9/4
Philadelphia Eagles: 7/2
Kansas City Chiefs: 4/1
St.Louis Rams: 4/1
Green Bay Packers: 13/2
Tennessee Titans: 7/1
Baltimore Ravens: 13/1
Denver Broncos: 14/1
Indianapolis Colts: 14/1
Carolina Panthers: 15/1
Dallas Cowboys: 33/1
Seattle Seahawks: 35/1

Posted by Ken Goldstein at January 3, 2004 4:55 PM

Those odds make more sense overall. If they played these playoffs 14 times, would the Colts win the Super Bowl at least once? I think so.

I would probably put an even amount on the Rams and Chiefs and hope for one to come through to double my money.

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 3, 2004 5:01 PM

I have bet a signficant amount of loot on 2 games being played tonight:

Baltimore to win
Cowboys to win

If the Cowboys play the Eagles next week, then I will be torn, but the spread should be interesting on that game.

One of my new year's resolutions was to stop (or at least cut back) on betting on football-both college and pro. Only day 3 into the New Year and I stand too lose a few bucks. Glad that I didn't give up drinking as a resolution...

Posted by Cass at January 3, 2004 6:15 PM

Hey, nice picking there, Cass.

Posted by Ken Goldstein at January 3, 2004 11:41 PM

Looks like 2004 is not treating Cass' betting habit too well.

Posted by Cory at January 4, 2004 2:05 AM

Ken- i hope it works out for the Bronco's too
cass? when you did drink,what was your poisen?

Posted by Grant at January 4, 2004 3:03 AM

Ok, I suck.

I am going back to my original resolution and I am not betting on ANY football for 2004. Therefore, I can't watch football for an entire year because it will be way to tempting. Damn. I lost a lot of coin last night. Fucking 50 year old fat kicker..WTF...

I will drown my sorrows in Miller Lite (the good old american stuff) tonight, as it is all I can afford now-LOL- lucky for me, I did not give up drinking for the new year.

My New Year Resolutions for 2004:
1) Not to bet on football (both college and pro)
2) To have more patience with people, even the stupid ones.
3) To save an equal amount of $ to what I spend.
4) Have sexual relations with PK.
5) To not golf with any of my brothers or sister for the year. Brothers are too good and sister sucks so bad it is not competitive. Need to work on my game.

Posted by Cass at January 4, 2004 8:36 AM

That fat Titans kicker is a Syracuse man. Hard to keep those boys down.

That was a some wild-card game. Ray Lewis scares the hell out of me, but he raises the intensity of everyone around him. His teammates, his opponents, the fans. You can't even watch a Ravens game on TV without attacking a bag of chips and tearing it apart when you're done.

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 4, 2004 11:07 AM

I am aware that kicker (or as I call him...old fuck who cost me alot of $) is a Syracuse Alum from MANY years back. I still hate the bastard.

As far as I am concerned, the only 2 good things that came out of Syracuse are Donovan McNabb and Paul Katcher.

I would cheer for Donovan and the Eagles but I am afraid to jinx them. My 2004 record has sucked thus far and we are only into day 4.

Posted by Cass at January 4, 2004 11:35 AM

I forgot to add...

I agree with you, PK. Ray Lewis is very scary. I think he is certifiably nuts and that is what makes him a great player and team motivator. Now that I think about it, his teammates are probably just as scared of him. It isn't a stretch to believe that he was accused of murder at one time...

Posted by Cass at January 4, 2004 12:05 PM

Hey Cass, I really want to place a big last minute bet on the Sugar Bowl tonight. Please bet one last time, and let me know who you pick so I can pick the other. It seems like a sure thing for me.

Sorry, had to get one last jab in.

Posted by Cory at January 4, 2004 1:25 PM

Sorry Cory, I am day 4 into my new year resolution to not make bets therefore I cannot reveal who my pick would be.

For what it is worth, the Eagles are my hometown team so you can bet against them next week to win. You can thank me later, cash or alcohol should do.

Posted by Cass at January 4, 2004 3:14 PM

Cass, hate to keep everyone picking on you, but I thought it should be noted that the Miller Lite you drank up in the Great White North was actually brewed here, not in the US. Unless it is served in a green bottle, the Canadian brewers produce all of your favourite American suds for this market, only with a higher alcohol content to match the regular Canadian brews. Over the course of a full night of drinking, it makes a difference (the next morning too)!

Posted by Mike at January 4, 2004 4:47 PM

Mike,

I recall my Miller Lite being referred to as an import, because that was how it was listed on the menu and that is why it cost me more. Oh well, I don't care- I had a good old drunken time up there. I love Canada, just not their beer. Last summer, I was at a party is Wash DC with Canadian Ambassadors, and they kept pushing that shit beer on me. I didn't want to insult them so I drank it and had a wicked high school style hangover the next day. I also have pics of my sister (who also didn't like the beer) making drunken asses of ourselves, due to the beer. Always the beers fault-never ours:).

I learned about higher alcohol content in beer when I was in Germany . They do not regulate alcohol content there, and it is cheaper to buy beer in McDonald's there then it is to buy a large Diet Coke. Now alcohol content regulation is where we fall short in the USA. Why can't we be like everyone else and not regulate it?

Posted by Cass at January 4, 2004 6:46 PM

Not to brag or anything, but I was 4-0 with my picks against the spread (16/1 chance if each side has an equal chance of coming through). Even picked the Packers to win but not cover.

OK, I'm bragging.

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 4, 2004 6:49 PM

Paul,

Brag, baby, brag....you've earned it. =)

Posted by J at January 4, 2004 7:38 PM

Will you be in Canada in July, Cass?

Posted by at January 4, 2004 7:53 PM

PK,
You have every right to brag, as I should be made to hang my head in shame that every single one of my picks fucking tanked. I hate it that you were right and I was wrong. But do you feel that McNabb will be able to take the Eagles all the way? Can you stand by your fellow 'Cuse Alum knowing that the Eagles are my hometown pick and I jinx teams?

To the annoymous Canadian...I would love to go to Canada in July. Is that an invite? Make sure there is real beer waiting for me...

Posted by Cass at January 4, 2004 8:22 PM

The "anonymous" Canadian does have a name...Julie. :) I just value my privacy and don't feel a need to draw constant attention to myself since this is Paul's site, not mine. How fair would that be to him if I wrote about myself all day long?

This Canadian already lives in the US, enjoys her US and Canadian brews equally and will be living in the NYC area soon. I'm making the trek to Canada for a cousin's wedding. Sorry, my inquiry was not an invite.

But do enjoy your next trip to my lovely homeland. :)

Posted by Julie at January 4, 2004 8:30 PM

The posting section is just that--to post about what Paul chats about. It started off with playoff football and spun out of control into hockey and then canada and beer. Other people that all have something in common, along with PK, and posting about it. That is the purpose of Paul putting topics out there. That is the beauty of PK.com.

Julie, how can you say you value your privacy when you have revealed intimate details about yourself on these very posts in the past? I think you have drawn plenty attention to yourself, so don't be so quick to cast judgement on others.

Another thing I dislike about Canada along with the beer...the women that think they are better then everyone else.

Posted by Cass at January 4, 2004 9:51 PM

My wish is that the comment threads are used to advance a discussion about what I have posted about, in this case the NFL playoffs.

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 4, 2004 10:10 PM

I should also state that the PK.com forum is always open for people to begin their own discussions, but for the sake of retaining a relevant archive, I want comment threads to pertain to my original subject matter.

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 4, 2004 10:45 PM

Thank you, Paul. :) The posts should be contained to the subject at hand, agreed.

I will address this to Cass, however, in a final attempt to ask her to cease and desist the nonsensical and immature comments toward me - NEVER have I ever revealed "intimate" details about myself on this board, in the past, as you claim. You are the hypocrite here as the people who read this board know more about your personal life, your ego and your activities than they do mine.

And as you continue on your insulting tangent and your hyprocrisy, Cass, to insinuate that I am a woman who thinks I'm better than everybody else? No, that is the furthest thing from the truth. I think that title belongs to you.

From here on, Cass, insult me all you want because it will say a lot more about you than I. My attention will be on the content Paul posts.

Posted by Julie at January 4, 2004 10:50 PM

Refer to my posts and you will see that I was discussing the playoffs (I took a beating with my picks, remember?). Along with being sidetracked about hockey, et al. A quick review shows all of Julies post are about Canada...

For anyone to think that I would even go on a "tangent" about them is so full of themselves. I wouldn't waste the words or the thoughts, save it for someone else. I am not a hypocrite. I am an open honest person, that's all. Now, I am going to have to remember to stick to my new year resolution #2 when posting...

To get back on track...Go Eagles.

Posted by Cass at January 4, 2004 11:05 PM

I could retort, but you are so not worth it, Cass.....

Posted by at January 4, 2004 11:09 PM

Impressive. You went four for four.

Posted by Bill Buckner at January 5, 2004 11:28 AM

I bet Cass is butt ugly - we've never seen a photo, just her running off at the mouth.

Don't shit where you eat Cass.

Posted by Johnnie Z at January 5, 2004 12:38 PM

This post is about the playoffs, not me, remember?
So why would I post a pic? This is PK's site, and his place to post pics not mine.

Just for the record Johnnie Z, I am not butt ugly (far from it) and I do not shit where I eat.

Classy friends you got there Julie....

Posted by Cass at January 5, 2004 3:52 PM

Oh Cass, here we go again....don't attack me. I don't know the guy who wrote the above post. He is stating his own opinion. You seem a bit paranoid and uptight, dear.

I'm sure that while there are some people who are devotees of yours on this board and write you oodles of fanmail, there are even more that can't stand how you verbally attack anyone who dares to speak out against your views/opinions.

You preach enough stuff, no of which you practice. Leave those of us alone who do not care for what you have to say. Get over it and respect it.

Posted by Julie at January 5, 2004 4:46 PM

I was just wondering, is anyone reading this?

Normally I just delete this kind of insult tennis, sometimes I ban the posters permanently, but not if it entertains the masses, and not if the combatants are not embarrassed by it.

Now if you girls had only posted about the NFL playoffs (and my, ahem, 4-0 picks so far) LIKE I ASKED YOU TO MULTIPLE TIMES, we wouldn't be down here, around comment No. 45, accusing each other of impersonation and hypocricy.

Say the word, and I'll delete all this stuff from the thread. Or I'll be happy to keep it up if you wanna, well, keep it up.

Round 7. Ding!

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 5, 2004 5:01 PM

I'm reading it, and think it's kind of funny. I don't know anything about either Cass or Julie, but Cass seems like a cool chick from what I can tell. But anyway, I have no problems with Cass (yet), and I don't see why she is being attacked.

Yes, this is all a bit childish, but who cares. From now on, during the insults, just write something about Peyton Manning or Priest Holmes or something, just to keep on topic.

Posted by Cory at January 5, 2004 7:03 PM

So, speaking of the NFL playoffs, that Julie is pretty touchy, ain't she?

Posted by Ken Goldstein at January 5, 2004 7:38 PM

I went 3-1 against the spread, by the way, missing the Seattle/Green Bay game, not predicting how well the Seahawks would play for 99.9% of the game. I'm also pretty surprised New England is only favored by 6, considering how banged up Eddie George and McNair are.

Posted by Ken Goldstein at January 5, 2004 7:45 PM

Cass thinks she runs the show on this posting board. So if Paul has seen a photo of her, then by all means tell us she's hot. Otherwise it sounds like she's trying to feel better about herself by putting others (like me & Julie) down.

EAD, Cass. A Big, Fat one too!

Posted by Johnnie Z at January 6, 2004 8:23 PM

Go Eagles!

Aw, Pk don't let me take a beating like this. Tell them how fabulous I am...

Posted by Cass at January 6, 2004 8:53 PM

You guys have your fun on here and leave me out of it. Completely.

Posted by Paul Katcher at January 6, 2004 10:42 PM

POST POST

Posted by Johnnie Z at January 8, 2004 8:02 PM

I read all of this..it went from playoffs to insulting??what a change..but i had no problems with it..it's pretty funny..Now about the playoffs..I bet on Rams(lost)..Patriots(won) and my team is the Colts..Who I think will(well let's not go there)..plus i think the Eagles are gonna kill the Packers..But K.C. needs some credit too..They haven't been anything for much of my life(17 years) and they are doing pretty well this season..well..i'm done writing..

See ya'll

Posted by Kevo at January 11, 2004 12:20 AM

I'd like to add one more thing..You guys talk about Syracuse players like their terrible..I live REALLY close to Syracuse..And Syracuse is a really good place to make some good football players;Harrison,Macnabb,Freeney and many more..

So there ya go

Posted by Kevo at January 11, 2004 2:30 AM
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